Labor easily wins South Australian election with One Nation beating Liberals into second on primary votes

With 34% of enrolled voters counted for today’s South Australian state election, The Poll Bludger’s results^[1] have Labor winning 31 of the 47 lower house seats, the Liberals four, One Nation one and independents one, with ten still in some doubt. This is already a majority for Labor.

When doubtful seats are assigned to the most likely winner, Labor has 35 seats, One Nation four, the Liberals four and independents four. If this occurs, Labor would gain eight seats from the 2022 election^[2], which was already a thumping win for Labor, the Liberals would be down 12, One Nation up four and independents steady.

Primary votes are currently 37.8% Labor (down 1.9% in booth matched swing from the 2022 election), 20.8% One Nation (up 18.5%), 18.4% Liberals (down 16.9%), 12.0% Greens (up 1.9%) and 5.6% independents (up 2.9%). A Labor vs Liberal two-party estimate has Labor winning by 59.2–40.8, a 4.6% swing to Labor.

While SA Labor was a first-term government, a negative impact from a somewhat unpopular federal Labor government should have been expected. Labor’s landslide will be devastating for the Liberals.

While One Nation is beating the Liberals on primary votes by 3.4%, which of these parties wins the most seats is still to be determined.

The Poll Bludger’s results map^[3] currently shows only one Adelaide seat being won by a conservative party (Bragg by the Liberals). If Australia’s cities keep trending to the left, it will be very difficult for the right to win here.

Except for a late experimental Resolve poll that was conducted using AI, the polling for this election appears to have been accurate. It will be at least another week before we have final primary votes for the election.

There are many seats where the electoral commission selected the incorrect two candidates for its election night two candidate preferred. In these seats, the count will need to be realigned between the correct two candidates. This will probably occur early next week. One Nation’s surge meant that the old Labor vs Liberal two candidate selection no longer automatically applies.

The large number of pre-poll votes are unlikely to be counted until later tonight, with some not finished by the end of tonight. These votes may affect some results, but the overall Labor landslide will still occur.

I will update this article Sunday morning with more details on the results, including a look at the upper house. In the upper house, 11 of the 22 members were up by statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota for election was one-twelfth of the vote or 8.3%.

Update Sunday morning

Many pre-poll votes have still not been counted. I’m not sure whether they’ll be counted today or early next week. With 52% of enrolled voters counted, The Poll Bludger’s results give Labor 33 of the 47 seats, the Liberals four, One Nation three and independents two, with five seats in some doubt.

Assigning doubtful seats to the most likely winner gives Labor 35, the Liberals five, One Nation four and independents three. If this occurs, the Liberals would retain opposition status.

Statewide primary votes are 39.1% Labor, 21.6% One Nation, 18.7% Liberals, 11.1% Greens and 4.7% independents, with Labor leading the Liberals by 57.4–42.6 on a two-party estimate.

Postal votes have still not been counted, and they will assist the Liberals. But absent votes that are cast by voters outside their home electorate will help Labor.

One Labor-held seat is in doubt. In Light, pre-polls have been counted and Labor has 37.8% of the primary vote, One Nation 34.3%, the Liberals 12.5% and the Greens 8.8%. The Poll Bludger^[4] has Labor barely leading One Nation after preferences 50.3–49.7, but we will need to wait for a Labor vs One Nation preference count after the initial count was Labor vs Liberal.

In Heysen^[5], pre-polls have been counted and the Liberals have 33.4%, Labor 24.4%, the Greens 23.0% and One Nation 14.5%. With assistance from One Nation preferences and postals, the Liberals will probably beat either Labor or the Greens in the final count.

Pre-poll votes have not yet been counted in the other three doubtful seats. In Hammond, One Nation is ahead, but the two candidate count will need to be realigned. In Stuart, independent Geoff Brock is a clear favourite to retain. In Kavel, Labor loses to independent Matt Schultz, but Schultz could be pushed out of the final two by One Nation on Liberal preferences.

Only 17% of the upper house vote^[6] has been counted. Labor has 4.4 quotas, One Nation 2.8, the Liberals 2.0, the Greens 1.4 and Legalise Cannabis and Family First 0.3 quotas each. On current figures, Labor would win four of the 11 seats up at this election, One Nation three, the Liberals two and the Greens one, with the final seat a Labor vs Greens contest.

In 2022, Labor won five seats, the Liberals four, the Greens onc and One Nation one, with One Nation’s winner Sarah Game defecting. If the current results hold, Labor would have 9–10 upper house seats out of 22, the Liberals six, One Nation three, the Greens 2–3 and Game one. Labor and the Greens would have the 12 combined seats needed for a majority.

Late SA Resolve poll

I covered four SA polls in Friday’s article^[7]. In a further poll, Resolve conducted “a new experimental AI poll” of SA for Nine newspapers on March 16 from a sample of 1,112. This poll gave^[8] Labor 32% of the primary vote, One Nation 28%, the Liberals 18%, the Greens 10% and all Others 11%.

References

1. ^{^} The Poll Bludger’s results (www.pollbludger.net)
2. ^{^} 2022 election (en.wikipedia.org)
3. ^{^} Poll Bludger’s results map (www.pollbludger.net)
4. ^{^} Poll Bludger (pollbludger.net)
5. ^{^} Heysen (pollbludger.net)
6. ^{^} upper house vote (www.abc.net.au)
7. ^{^} Friday’s article (theconversation.com)
8. ^{^} This poll gave (www.theage.com.au)