Labor set for landslide in final South Australian polls with One Nation ahead of Liberals

The South Australian state election is Saturday, with polls closing at 6:30pm AEDT. The 47 lower house seats will be elected in single-member electorates using preferential voting.

In the past few days, we have had SA polls from Newspoll, DemosAU, YouGov and Fox & Hedgehog. These polls all suggest a Labor landslide, with Labor’s primary vote at 37–40% and the Greens at 11–12%. One Nation is in the low 20s, supplanting the Liberals (high teens) as the main right-wing party.

Breakdowns from the DemosAU, YouGov and Fox & Hedgehog polls suggest Labor is doing particularly well in Adelaide. The Liberals will likely beat One Nation on primary votes in many Adelaide seats, but if Labor wins these seats, it won’t count for the Liberals. In regional seats, One Nation is likely to beat the Liberals and win the seats.

On these polls, the Liberals could be wiped out in the lower house and be replaced by One Nation as the main right-wing party. But Labor would win a landslide.

Eleven of the 22 upper house seats will also be up for election by statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota for election is one-twelfth of the vote or 8.3%.

In previous SA elections, only ordinary votes cast on election day have been counted on election night. However, legislation passed in 2024^[1] will allow pre-poll and postal votes to also be counted on the night.

By the end of the night, we will have a much higher share of the overall vote counted than at previous SA elections. However, the pre-poll votes will take much longer to count than those cast on election day.

This article also includes a New South Wales Resolve poll that has Labor’s primary vote slumping eight points since January to 29% as One Nation debuts with 23%.

SA Newspoll

A SA Newspoll^[2], conducted March 12–18 from a sample of 1,048, gave Labor 40% of the primary vote (down four since the mid-February Newspoll^[3]), One Nation 22% (down two), the Liberals 16% (up two), the Greens 12% (steady) and all Others 10% (up four). No two-party estimate was reported.

Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas’ net approval was down six points to +34 (65% satisfied, 31% dissatisfied). Liberal leader Ashton Hurn’s net approval was up four points to +8 (43% satisfied, 35% dissatisfied). Malinauskas led Hurn as better premier by 64–22 (67–19 previously).

SA DemosAU poll

A SA DemoaAU and Ace Strategies poll^[4] for InDaily, conducted March 12–18 from a sample of 1,242, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down six since the early February DemosAU poll), One Nation 23% (up four), the Liberals 17% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one) and all Others 12% (up four). No two-party estimates were provided.

Malinauskas’ net positive score was +29 (49% positive, 20% negative), while Hurn was at net zero (21% positive, 21% negative). One Nation’s lead upper house candidate Cory Bernardi was at net -16 net (36% negative, 20% positive).

SA YouGov poll

A SA YouGov poll^[5] for The Advertiser, conducted March 9–17 from a sample of 1,265, gave Labor 38% of the primary vote (up one since the mid-February YouGov poll), One Nation 22% (steady), the Liberals 19% (down one), the Greens 12% (down one), independents 5% (down one) and others 4% (up two).

By respondent preferences, Labor led both One Nation and the Liberals by 59–41, a one-point gain for One Nation vs Labor and steady against the Liberals.

Malinauskas’ net approval was down three points to +33, with 63% satisfied and 30% dissatisfied. Hurn’s net approval was steady at +7 (42% satisfied, 35% dissatisfied). Malinauskas led Hurn as better premier by 62–23 (64–20 previously).

SA Fox & Hedgehog poll

A SA Fox & Hedgehog poll^[6], conducted March 6–16 from a sample of 1,008, gave Labor 38% of the primary vote (down two since the early February F&H poll^[7], One Nation 21% (up one), the Liberals 18% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one) and all Others 12% (up three).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 59–41, a four-point gain for One Nation. They led the Liberals by 60–40, a one-point gain for the Liberals. In a three-party preferred, where Green and Other voters are asked to choose between Labor, the Liberals and One Nation, Labor had 52% (down two), One Nation 26% (up one) and the Liberals 22% (up one).

Malinauskas’ net approval was up two points to +33 (52% approve, 19% disapprove). Hurn’s net approval was up three to +10 (25% approve, 15% disapprove). Malinauskas led Hurn as preferred premier by 55–22 (54–22 previously). Bernardi’s net approval was down five to -9 (23% disapprove, 14% approve).

Federal politicians included in this SA poll were Anthony Albanese (down six to -15 net approval), Pauline Hanson (down five to +5) and Angus Taylor (up six to -1).

NSW Resolve poll: Labor slumps as One Nation debuts with 23%

The New South Wales state election is in March 2027. A Resolve poll^[8] for The Sydney Morning Herald was conducted March 9–14 from a sample of 1,100. Unlike most previous NSW Resolve polls, this was conducted in one week, not over two months.

Labor had 29% of the primary vote (down eight since the December to January Resolve poll), the Coalition 25% (down two), One Nation 23% (not previously asked for), the Greens 10% (steady), independents 8% (down three) and others 5% (down ten).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls, but analyst Kevin Bonham^[9] gave Labor about a 53–47 lead over the Coalition. Optional preferential voting in NSW hurts the right as there’s a split between One Nation and the Coalition.

Despite Labor’s slump on voting intentions, Labor incumbent Chris Minns held a 38–17 lead as preferred premier over Liberal leader Kellie Sloane (40–18 in January). On the NSW state outlook, 30% said it would get worse in the next year, 19% better and 51% said no change.

This poll contrasts with a NSW DemosAU early March poll^[10] that gave Labor 34% of the primary vote, the Coalition 23%, One Nation 21% and the Greens 15%.

Federal Morgan poll and further Resolve questions

A national Morgan poll^[11], conducted March 9–15 from a sample of 1,654, gave Labor 28.5% of the primary vote (up two since the March 2–8 Morgan poll), the Coalition 24% (up 1.5), One Nation 22.5% (down one), the Greens 12.5% (down two) and all Others 12.5% (down 0.5).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

I previously covered^[12] the national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. In additional questions^[13], respondents were pessimistic about the near-term economic outlook, with 44% expecting it to get worse in the next year and 21% better and more pessimism about shorter horizons. But in the next five years, “get better” led by 33–30.

On the rising cost of living, 40% thought the federal government most responsible, 17% global factors, 10% state and territory governments, 6% businesses and 6% the Reserve Bank.

References

1. ^{^} legislation passed in 2024 (www.abc.net.au)
2. ^{^} Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
3. ^{^} mid-February Newspoll (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} DemoaAU and Ace Strategies poll (www.indailysa.com.au)
5. ^{^} YouGov poll (www.adelaidenow.com.au)
6. ^{^} Fox & Hedgehog poll (drive.google.com)
7. ^{^} early February F&H poll (drive.google.com)
8. ^{^} Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
9. ^{^} analyst Kevin Bonham (x.com)
10. ^{^} NSW DemosAU early March poll (theconversation.com)
11. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
12. ^{^} previously covered (theconversation.com)
13. ^{^} additional questions (www.theage.com.au)