What Lula’s stunning comeback means for the future of the far right in Brazil
- Written by: Weekend Times
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s stunning win in this week’s Brazilian presidential election bucks a wave of recent right-wing electoral victories across Latin America.
But despite the fact Lula has
won a historic fourth term in office, the right has actually strengthened its position in Brazil’s Congress. Flávio Bolsonaro may have lost the presidency, but his Liberal Party has claimed the largest share of seats in both houses.
So, what happens next for the Bolsonaro family and the political movement they have championed? Could Flávio Bolsonaro’s defeat open the door for more centrist candidates to lead Brazil’s right?
What next for Flávio?
The Bolsonaro family has been active in Brazilian politics since the 1990s, and a dominant force since Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, won the presidency in the 2018 elections.
Flávio Bolsonaro had campaigned on a similar platform to that of his father, and if elected would have had the opportunity to cement the Bolsonaro legacy. This included promises to cut taxes and crack down on crime.
He had also promised to release his father from prison. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence after being convicted of plotting a coup to overturn Brazil’s 2022 presidential election, which he lost.
Flavio initially refused to concede defeat and said he would seek an annulment of the result, but has now reportedly abandoned this plan.
The younger Bolsonaro’s uncertain political future is further complicated by allegations of financial misconduct at the centre of an ongoing investigation by Brazilian police.
Shortly after the election results came in, Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro to surrender his passports and prohibited him from leaving the country.
Why the Bolsonaro name might not leave politics yet
What about the rest of the Bolsonaros? While Flávio’s loss in this election has damaged the family’s political brand, its influence is unlikely to disappear.
Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair’s wife, was elected to Brazil’s Senate for the first time earlier this month.
Presenting herself as a dedicated evangelical Christian, she has a strong profile among religious voters. This group has been a cornerstone of support for the Bolsonaro movement more broadly.
Now having secured a Senate seat, she has the chance to build a political career in her own right. And with the power she now commands in her family, she emerges as a natural successor to Flávio in leading Brazil’s right.
Could the centre-right now make a comeback?
However, there’s no guarantee the next figurehead of Brazil’s right will be a Bolsonaro.
More broadly, politics in Brazil has been characterised by the decline of the traditional centre-right, whose influence largely faded following the election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018.
That’s meant that for those who don’t like Lula, the only real alternative has been a far-right candidate.
Some more centrist conservative politicians may now see an opportunity.
One of the most prominent is Tarcísio de Freitas, who has just been re-elected as governor of São Paulo, the country’s most populous state.
De Freitas served as infrastructure minister under Jair Bolsonaro, but has portrayed himself as a more technical, pragmatic figure on the centre-right.
He has distanced himself from far-right fringe conspiracies, as well as the more confrontational rhetoric associated with Bolsonaro-style politics.
However, given his strong previous connections with Jair Bolsonaro, it remains to be seen whether he would genuinely offer a break from Bolsonarism.
One complication for de Freitas taking up the helm of leading the right is that he belongs to the Republicanos party, not Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party. The Liberal Party is more likely to throw its weight behind Michelle Bolsonaro.
Whatever happens, there will be a lot of competition on the right to see who is going to lead. This will have to factor in considerations about who is most likely to be competitive in the next presidential election in 2030.
Does the right try to broaden its appeal by moving to the centre? Or find a new figurehead to champion the far-right agenda?
Succession challenges for the left
Those on Brazil’s political left may have won a reprieve with this election result, but there are challenges on the horizon.
For Lula, who is about to turn 81, this will be his last presidency, ending a long chapter in politics. His Workers’ Party hasn’t yet identified an obvious successor.
One stand-out option is former presidential candidate Fernando Haddad, who has served in multiple ministerial roles under Lula, most recently as minister for finance.
But his loss to Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election – and his more recent defeat in the 2022 São Paulo gubernatorial election – raise questions about his capacity to galvanise support.
What this means for Latin America
Latin America has seen a recent shift to the right, with conservative and far-right victories in Argentina, Chile and Colombia. Progressive movements in the region are already looking to this week’s result as proof such fortunes can change.
Some of Latin America’s right-wing leaders have been struggling with low and declining public approval. But the result in Brazil doesn’t necessarily signal Latin America is about to shift back to the left.
In Brazil, the next few years will be interesting to watch. The looming absences of figures who have dominated the country’s politics for years – Lula and the Bolsonaro father and son – could create new opportunities on both sides.
Deborah Barros Leal Farias does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
