Victorian DemosAU poll has Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing, but they remain ahead
- Written by: Weekend Times
Two months before the Victorian election, a DemosAU poll has Labor narrowing the Coalition’s two-party lead to 52–48 from 55–45 in August.
In two federal polls that were taken about the
same time as the previous federal Newspoll, the total primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition was 48% in YouGov (steady) and 47% in Morgan (up 0.5). The right vote was steady at 49% in the previous Newspoll.
Newspoll aggregate data for July to September indicates that One Nation has become dominant in Queensland, taking an 11-point primary vote lead over Labor. The Coalition has dropped to fourth place in South Australia, behind the Greens, One Nation and Labor.
In Germany, the far-right AfD came close to winning a majority of seats at the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election. But left-wing parties won two state elections on September 20.
Victorian DemosAU poll
The Victorian state election is on November 28. A DemosAU and Premier National poll, reported by The Herald Sun, was conducted September 10–20 from a sample of 1,020. It gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (down two since the early August DemosAU poll), Labor 25% (up two), One Nation 20% (down two), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 11% (up one).
After preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 52–48, a three-point gain for Labor.
Labor Premier Ben Carroll’s net positive score was up two points to -14 (37% negative, 23% positive). Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s was down three points to +8 (33% positive, 25% negative). One Nation leader Warren Pickering’s was up one point to -18 (40% negative, 22% positive). Leaders’ ratings are from The Poll Bludger.
This is the Victorian poll graph that I’m using to track the polls since late July. While Labor is still behind in this DemosAU poll, it’s Labor’s best result in a Victorian poll since Newspoll and Freshwater at the time of the change in premier from Jacinta Allan to Carroll.
The Poll Bludger’s Victorian BludgerTrack has the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by 51.5–48.5, from primary votes of 29.3% Coalition, 25.2% Labor, 22.1% One Nation and 13.2% Greens. Seat projections give the Coalition a bare majority with 45 of the 88 lower house seats, with Labor on 25, One Nation 15 and the Greens three.
Federal YouGov poll
A national YouGov poll for News24, conducted September 15–21 from a sample of 1,471, gave One Nation 27% of the primary vote (down three since the early September YouGov poll), Labor 26% (steady), the Coalition 21% (up three), the Greens 14% (up two), independents 6% (down one) and others 6% (down one).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 55–45, a two-point gain for Labor. They led the Coalition by an unchanged 52–48.
Albanese’s net approval was down six points to -29, a record low for him in this poll, with 62% dissatisfied and 33% satisfied. Taylor’s net approval was steady at -12 (48% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied).
Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 41–37 (previously 43–39). He led Hanson by 50–38 (previously 51–40).
On digital duty of care laws, 42% said they are needed to make sure there is no harmful content online, 28% that they are needed, but the minister should not have the power to determine harmful content and 20% that there is too much power for the minister.
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted September 14–20 from a sample of 1,561, gave One Nation 25.5% of the primary vote (up 0.5 since the September 7–13 Morgan poll), Labor 25% (steady), the Coalition 21.5% (steady), the Greens 15.5% (down 0.5) and all Others 12.5% (steady).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a two-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
Newspoll aggregate data for July to September
The Australian released aggregate data on Monday for the four federal Newspolls taken between July 13 and September 18. The overall sample size was 4,967.
Nationally, One Nation had 30% of the primary vote (up two since the April to June Newspoll aggregate), Labor 29% (down two), the Coalition 19% (steady), the Greens 13% (up one) and all Others 9% (down one).
In Queensland, One Nation had 36% (up four), Labor 25% (down five), the Coalition 19% (down three) and the Greens 12% (up three).
In New South Wales, One Nation had 31% (up two), Labor 30% (down one), the Coalition 17% (up one) and the Greens 12% (down one). In Victoria, Labor had 29% (up one), One Nation 25% (steady), the Coalition 22% (up one) and the Greens 16% (up two).
In South Australia, Labor had 32% (steady), One Nation 31% (down one), the Greens 14% (steady) and the Coalition 13% (down three). In Western Australia, Labor had 30% (down two), One Nation 29% (up three), the Coalition 21% (down one) and the Greens 11% (down one).
Among those without any tertiary education, One Nation had 35% (up two), Labor 25% (down two), the Coalition 18% (down two) and the Greens 14% (up two). Among those with a TAFE education, One Nation had 37% (up one), Labor 26% (down two), the Coalition 16% (steady) and the Greens 10% (steady).
Among those with a university education, Labor had 37% (down one), the Coalition 22% (up two), One Nation 17% (steady) and the Greens 14% (steady).
Left-wing parties win two German state elections
On September 6, the far-right AfD came close to winning a majority of seats in the Saxony-Anhalt German state election. At two state elections held on September 20, the three left-wing parties of centre-left SPD, Greens and Left won a combined majority with 39 of 71 seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and 95 of 158 in Berlin.
The conservative CDU crashed below the 5% threshold required to win seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the first time this has occurred in a state election.
I wrote about these elections for The Poll Bludger, and also covered the left bloc’s narrow win at the September 13 Swedish election and the upcoming Brazilian presidential election on October 4 and 25.
Tasmanian DemosAU poll
A Tasmanian state DemosAU poll, conducted September 1–20 from a sample of 1,097, gave the Liberals 28% of the vote (steady since the June to July DemosAU poll), Labor 22% (up one), One Nation 21% (steady), the Greens 15% (up one), independents 10% (down two) and others 4% (steady).
Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two-party estimate isn’t applicable. On these votes, the Liberals and One Nation would win a combined majority.
Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net positive score was up three points to net zero (35% positive, 35% negative). Labor leader Josh Willie’s was down two points to -8 (29% negative, 21% positive). Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff’s was steady at -12 (37% negative, 25% positive). Rockliff led Willie as preferred premier by 42–34 (41–32 previously).
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
