One Nation surges in two polls taken after Secret Harbour byelection
- Written by: Weekend Times
The federal YouGov and Morgan polls are the first that were entirely taken after One Nation thumped Labor at the August 29 Western Australian state Secret Harbour byelection.
In YouGov, One
Nation’s primary vote jumped four points to 30% and Labor’s dropped three points to 26%. One Nation’s four-point primary vote lead is its best in this poll. In Morgan, One Nation’s primary vote was up three points, but Labor still led on primary votes by 0.5 points.
The combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition was up one point in YouGov to 48% and up four points in Morgan to 48%. The previous week’s Morgan poll had disagreed with other polls at the time in having the total right vote relatively low.
DemosAU has state polls from Queensland and South Australia. The Liberal National Party has a big lead in Queensland and Labor has a big lead in SA.
At Sunday’s German Saxony-Anhalt state election, the far-right AfD won 43.8% of the vote but missed out on a majority of seats, winning 39 of 83 seats.
Federal YouGov poll
A national YouGov poll for News24 (formerly Sky News), conducted September 1–8 from a sample of 1,510, gave One Nation 30% of the primary vote (up four since the late August YouGov poll), Labor 26% (down three), the Coalition 18% (down three), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 7% (up two) and others 7% (steady).
This is One Nation’s equal best primary vote in this poll, matching a late June peak. It’s Labor’s equal worst, matching two polls in late May and mid-June. One Nation’s four-point primary vote lead is a record high in this poll. The Coalition’s primary vote is one point above its record low in late June.
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a three-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -23 (59% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied). Angus Taylor’s net approval was up four points to -12 (48% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 43–39 (previously 44–37). He led Pauline Hanson by 51–40 (previously 52–37).
On immigration, 42% wanted a big decrease, 24% a small decrease, 27% thought it should stay about the same, 4% wanted a small increase and only 3% a big increase, so a total of 66% wanted a decrease and just 7% an increase.
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted August 31 to September 6 from a sample of 1,541, gave Labor 27% of the primary vote (down 2.5 since the August 24–30 Morgan poll), One Nation 26.5% (up three), the Coalition 21.5% (up one), the Greens 14.5% (up one) and all Others 10.5% (down 2.5).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53.5–46.5, a two-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a three-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition.
DemosAU poll questions on data centres
I previously reported on the federal mid-August DemosAU poll for Capital Brief. In questions on data centres, by 32–30 respondents thought their development would be bad for Australians.
By 49–24, respondents supported new apartment blocks being built in their area. But they opposed building a data centre by 44–23 and opposed a nuclear power plant by 55–20.
While a net +29 thought data centres would increase economic growth and long-term jobs, a net +62 thought they would increase electricity prices, a net +52 thought they would increase pollution and a net +24 thought they would decrease quality of life in your community.
LNP still has big lead in Queensland
A Queensland state DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted August 22 to September 2 from a sample of 1,291, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34% of the primary vote (steady since the late May DemosAU poll), Labor 26% (up one), One Nation 21% (down three), the Greens 11% (up one) and all Others 8% (up one).
The LNP led Labor after preferences by 56–44, a two-point gain for Labor.
LNP Premier David Crisafulli’s net positive score was up two points since February to +18 (42% positive, 24% negative). Labor leader Steven Miles’ was up five points to -5 (35% negative, 30% positive). Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 45–33 (47–30 in May).
SA DemosAU poll has Labor far ahead
A South Australian state DemosAU and Ace Strategies poll, conducted August 5–26 from a sample of 1,012, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (up two since the early June DemosAU poll), One Nation 25% (down one), the Liberals 17% (down one), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 8% (steady).
After preferences, Labor led One Nation by 58–42, a two-point gain for Labor.
Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas’ net positive score was up three points to +25 (44% positive, 19% negative). One Nation SA leader Cory Bernardi’s was up three points to -18 (38% negative, 20% positive). Liberal leader Ashton Hurn’s was up one point to -2 (24% negative, 22% positive).
In a three-way preferred premier question, Malinauskas had 46% (up five), Bernardi 20% (steady) and Hurn 17% (down three).
Far-right AfD comes close to majority of seats at German state election
I covered Sunday’s German Saxony-Anhalt state election for The Poll Bludger.
The far-right AfD won 39 of the 83 seats, three short of a majority. Only an alliance of the other five parliamentary parties can stop the AfD from governing. This election used statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold.
The AfD won 43.8% of the vote (up 23.0% since the 2021 state election) and the conservative governing CDU 17.2% (down 19.9%). In German federal polls, the AfD has moved ahead of the CDU/CSU. Two more German state elections will be held on September 20, with the AfD expected to do well in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
