Volatile electorate delivers mixed results for all parties in latest polls
- Written by: Weekend Times
In the two latest new federal polls, Morgan was good for Labor but Essential was bad. There were four federal polls taken last week, largely before the Western Australian Secret Harbour
The total vote for One Nation and the Coalition was 44% in Morgan (down four), 49% in Newspoll (up two), 49% in Essential (up two) and 50% in Redbridge (down three). The previous Redbridge was probably an outlier, so currently only Morgan doesn’t suggest the right is trending higher.
A NSW DemosAU state poll still has Labor in a dominant position, due to the split right vote and NSW’s optional preferential system.
In Canada, the centre-left governing Liberals easily won all three of Monday’s byelections (two holds and one gain from the Conservatives). US president Donald Trump has helped the Canadian Liberals remain dominant.
Essential poll
A national Essential poll, conducted August 26–30 from a sample of 1,017, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote (down five since the late July Essential poll), the Coalition 26% (up four), One Nation 23% (down two), the Greens 13% (up one), all Others 6% (steady) and undecided 5% (up one).
By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 50–45, reversing a 48–47 Labor lead in July. This is the Coalition’s biggest lead in an Essential poll since March 2024, and their biggest lead from any pollster this term.
Applying 2025 election preference flows to the primaries would put the Coalition just ahead by about 50.5–49.5. Weak respondent flows to Labor and a low Others vote are features of Essential’s polls.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped seven points to -21 (56% disapprove, 35% approve). This is a record low for him in this poll. Angus Taylor’s improved three points to -9 (41% disapprove, 32% approve).
Just 9% said they were union members and 4% political party members, while 15% were members of local sporting clubs and 11% other voluntary organisations. But 60% said unions were important for working people today (down four since July 2024).
By 55–6, respondents thought violence against women in Australia has increased rather than decreased in the last few years.
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted August 24–30 from a sample of 1,585, gave Labor 29.5% of the primary vote (up 2.5 since the August 17–23 Morgan poll), One Nation 23.5% (down 3.5), the Coalition 20.5% (down 0.5), the Greens 13.5% (down 0.5) and all Others 13% (up two).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 55.5–44.5, a 2.5-point gain for Labor. Labor led the Coalition by 56–44, a four-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 55–45, a 2.5-point gain for Labor.
Additional questions from Redbridge poll
I previously covered the late August national Redbridge poll for The Financial Review. In additional questions, Albanese’s net favourability was up two points since late July to -17 (48–31 unfavourable), Pauline Hanson’s was down two points to -12 (48–36 unfavourable) and Taylor’s was up three points to -3 (25–22 unfavourable).
Combining the Coalition and One Nation against Labor and the Greens on the issues, the right led on cost of living by 40–33, housing affordability by 38–31, immigration by 54–24, crime by 45–24, the economy by 43–29, tax reform by 39–29 and national security by 44–26.
The left’s two leads were on healthcare by 39–34 and climate change by 44–25. Since late July, the left has gained, recovering the lead on healthcare.
The top three issues were cost of living (75% said it was a top three issue for them), healthcare (37%) and housing affordability (33%). Immigration has moved into fourth place on 27%, replacing crime.
NSW DemosAU poll
The New South Wales state election is in March 2027. A DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted August 19–26 from a sample of 1,028, gave Labor 33% of the primary vote (steady since the mid-June DemosAU poll), the Coalition 25% (up five), One Nation 23% (down four), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 7% (down one).
Labor is advantaged by the split in the right-wing vote under NSW’s optional preferential system. Based on 2023 election flows, Labor leads the Coalition by 57–43 after preferences.
Half of the 42 upper seats are elected at each election by statewide proportional representation with preferences. In this poll, Labor had 31% in the upper house (up one), the Coalition 25% (up five), One Nation 24% (down three), the Greens 14% (up one) and Legalise Cannabis 2% (up one), with no other party above 1%.
On these vote shares, the pollster estimates Labor would win seven of the 21 upper house seats up next March, the Coalition five, One Nation five and the Greens three with one in doubt. Overall, Labor would have 15 seats out of 42, the Coalition 12, One Nation five, the Greens five, others four and one in doubt. Three of the four others are right-wing.
If this occurred, the overall left would have 21 of the 42 upper house seats, one short of a majority. If the left won the in doubt seat, they would have a majority.
Labor Premier Chris Minns’ net positive score was +15 (37% positive, 22% negative). Liberal leader Kellie Sloane’s was +5 (25% positive, 20% negative). Minns led Sloane as preferred premier by 44–26. By 55–27, respondents supported the NSW gun buyback scheme.
Liberals easily win three Canadian federal byelections
Byelections occurred in three Canadian federal seats on Monday. The centre-left Liberals easily won all three, holding two and gaining one from the Conservatives. This gives them a parliamentary majority with 173 of the 343 seats. A further six byelections are expected in the near future.
I covered these byelections for The Poll Bludger, and also wrote about the upcoming US midterm elections and a possible parliamentary majority for the populist right AfD at a German state election this Sunday.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
