Can you be a World Cup ‘winner’ without winning the World Cup?
- Written by: Weekend Times
The winner of the World Cup final will be crowned on Monday morning Australian time.
Even though only one team will raise the trophy, how might other sides still consider
their tournament a success?
Historic overachievers
FIFA rankings have existed since 1992 and surprisingly, the number one team has never won the World Cup during this time.
So previous number one-ranked teams can be considered to have under-performed.
But which sides have over-performed?
The lowest ranked team to win the World Cup was France (ranked 18th) in 1998.
It is important to acknowledge France hosted that tournament and hosts often perform better than usual thanks to home ground advantages.
Italy (13th) was the lowest ranked team to win the World Cup away from home (in Germany) in 2006.
Several other teams have also exceeded expectations over the years, despite not lifting the trophy.
Although their 2026 campaigns were less successful, countries such as Croatia and Uruguay are considered consistent overachievers at World Cups.
Despite populations of less than 4 million, both these teams have finished in the top ten in almost half of their World Cup appearances. This is well above average for the 130th and 134th most populous countries in the world.
Croatia’s third-place in 1998 was the equal best ever finish for a country in their first World Cup. They repeated this result in 2022 and also finished second in 2018.
In addition to these consistent overachievers, there have also been some tournament-specific surprises.
At the 2002 event, co-hosts South Korea (ranked 40th) defied expectations by knocking out Italy (fifth) and Spain (eighth) on their way to the semi-finals. They lost 1-0 to eventual champions Germany and finished fourth overall.
This is the still the best result by an Asian country in a World Cup.
Fourth is also the best ever result for African and Arab nations. In 2022 Morocco (ranked 22nd) defeated Belgium (second), Spain (sixth) and Portugal (ninth) on their way to the semi-finals.
Prior to 2022, they had only won two games in their five World Cup appearances.
Bulgaria’s fourth place in 1994 is perhaps the most surprising result in modern World Cup history.
They were ranked 29th and had never won a game in their five previous World Cups.
Yet, led by golden boot winner Hristo Stoichkov, they defeated Argentina (eighth) and world number one and reigning champions Germany on their run to the semi-finals.
They did not win a game in 1998, and haven’t qualified for the World Cup since.
What about the 2026 World Cup?
The current event is the first time since rankings were introduced that the top four teams all reached the semi-finals.
But were there any surprises in the earlier rounds?
The 2026 World Cup swelled to 48 teams, so any side with a ranking of 49 or lower would likely consider just qualifying to have been a success.
In 2026, 12 teams outside the top 48 qualified for the World Cup. The countries with the lowest rankings were Curaçao (ranked 82nd), Haiti (83rd) and New Zealand (85th).
Similarly, the knockout stage includes 32 teams. So, any sides ranked outside of the top 32 would likely consider making the knockouts a success.
In 2026, this group included eight teams: Bosnia and Herzegovina (ranked 64th), Cabo Verde (67th) and Ghana (73rd) had the lowest rankings.
Of these overachieving teams, it is Cabo Verde which really grabbed the world’s attention.
They were unbeaten in the group stage, including draws with powerhouses Spain (ranked second) and Uruguay (16th). They pushed defending champions Argentina (first) right to the end, eventually losing 3-2 in extra time of their knockout game.
Six teams outside the top 16 rankings eventually made the round of 16. Paraguay (41st) was the lowest ranked.
Three countries ranked outside the top eight made the quarter-finals: Norway (31st) was the lowest ranked.
In their first World Cup since 1998, Norway had their best result ever, but could not get past England in their quarter-final.
Winning financially
Regardless of where teams finish, all nations leave the 2026 World Cup with prize money. FIFA has put a record US$871 million (A$1.26 billion) on the table for the 2026 World Cup prize pool and preparation fund, almost doubling the amount from the 2022 event in Qatar.
The payments were increased by almost 20% just 44 days before kick off after participating nations lobbied FIFA over high costs of competing across three host countries.
Payments range from a guaranteed minimum of US$12.5 million (A$18 million) per team through to US$50 million (A$72 million) for the champions.
Prize money is paid to national federations, which then decide how they spend it, including how much they allocate to players and staff.
For smaller nations especially, these rewards are potentially transformative. Cabo Verde’s fairytale run earned around US$23 million (A$33 million) – roughly 0.75% of the country’s GDP.
An equivalent share of the Australian GDP would be about US$13.9 billion (A$20 billion).
Football Australia’s total revenue for 2024 was A$123.7 million, meaning the Socceroos’ World Cup prize money (A$33.8 million) delivered the equivalent of more than a quarter of the organisation’s annual income in a single tournament.
Players can of course also be major beneficiaries if they shine at the World Cup – they can be offered multi-million dollar contracts by major clubs and earn lucrative endorsement deals from companies around the world.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
