View from The Hill: WA state byelection within Hastie’s seat another ‘real time’ test for One Nation

One Nation will be tested soon in a Western Australian byelection for a state seat lying predominantly within the federal electorate of Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie, a ferocious critic of the

party.

The contest, in the Labor seat of Secret Harbour, will be closely watched for whether One Nation erodes Labor in an outer suburban area, and also for its implications for Hastie, who holds the federal seat of Canning.

As well, the byelection will be important for One Nation because it will come in the run up to the crucial Victorian state election in November, which is seen as a major test – and opportunity – for Pauline Hanson’s party, which has been surging in the polls.

The WA byelection is prompted by the resignation of Paul Papalia, a long serving Labor member and a minister in the Cook Labor government. Papalia said on Monday he was quitting because of serious illness in his family.

One Nation confirmed it had been preparing for some time to run in the state seat. Hanson says it has a shortlist of potential candidates.

The Australian Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor sources had said recent internal polling suggested One Nation “was running neck-and-neck with Labor in the electorate.

"Labor insiders said recent polling estimated Labor and One Nation’s vote in the outer-suburban area was in the mid-30s, while the Liberal Party vote was hovering in the high teens,” the AFR reported.

In the 2025 state election the primary vote for Labor in Secret Harbour was 46.5%. The Liberals polled 25%, the Greens 8.8% and One Nation only 8.4%.

In general, federal Liberals are divided about how the party should respond to One Nation. While some favour a degree of accommodation, Hastie is hardline. He recently said in the Coalition parties room that he would “rather get taken out in a box than bend the knee to One Nation”.

One Nation strongly supports Ben Roberts-Smith, a VC winner accused of five counts of the war crime of murder, relating to his time in Afghanistan. One of its reasons for targeting Hastie, who served in Afghanistan with Roberts-Smith, is he gave evidence against Roberts-Smith in the latter’s failed defamation case.

After his party room comments, Hastie wrote to his supporters in a newsletter saying that One Nation:

haven’t just targeted my seat. They’ve run a relentless campaign of personal attacks against me online. It’s become serious enough that security at my home and electorate office needs to be upgraded.

One Nation has declared war on me, so they shall have war. This is now personal, and they will have to blast me out of Canning.

He said talk from some Liberals about preference deals was premature. “It signals weakness. We should only act from a position of strength.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.