Victorian Redbridge poll has One Nation just ahead of Labor and the Coalition
- Written by: Weekend Times
With less than five months until the Victorian state election, a large-sample Redbridge poll has One Nation on 27% of the primary vote, with Labor and the Coalition tied at 26%.
Right-wing parties are likely to win a majority in the upper house.
Newspoll federal aggregate data for April to June has Labor slumping in Victoria and South Australia, but holding its ground in the other mainland states.
The only new federal poll this week is a Morgan poll that has One Nation’s slump continuing, down nine points on primary votes to 22.5% compared with the Morgan poll two weeks ago.
Victorian Redbridge poll has near three-way tie on primary votes
The Victorian state election is in late November. A Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted June 17–28 from a large sample of 5,516, gave One Nation 27% of the primary vote (up three since the February Redbridge poll), Labor 26% (up one), the Coalition 26% (down two), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 8% (down two).
By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 54–46, a two-point gain for the Coalition. But Labor led One Nation by 52–48, a one-point gain for One Nation. Two early June Victorian polls had Labor third on primary votes behind One Nation and the Coalition.
The Greens and Others were asked which of Labor, the Coalition or One Nation they preferred. In this three-party preferred, Labor had 39.9%, the Coalition 30.1% and One Nation 29.9%.
Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a dismal -42 net favourability (59% unfavourable, 17% favourable). The Financial Review’s article says that all ten premiers who have had a -31 or worse net approval, presumably in Newspoll, have lost the next election, resigned or been ousted by their party.
Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s net favourability was +13 (31% favourable, 18% unfavourable). Pauline Hanson’s net favourability with Victorians was -9 (46% unfavourable, 37% favourable).
On whether parties were focused on the right issues, the Liberals were at +7 (39–32 agreed they were focused on the right issues), One Nation at net zero (40–40), the Greens at -12 (42–30 disagreed) and Labor at -17 (49–32 disagreed).
All 40 upper house seats are elected by proportional representation with preferences in eight five-member regions. This poll reported its lower house results by upper house region. One Nation and the Coalition combined were above 50% in six regions and at 49% in one other region.
If the lower house results in this poll were replicated in the upper house at the election, right-wing parties would win three of the five seats in each region except Northern Metropolitan, and two in that region, giving them an overall 23 of the 40 upper house seats.
I wrote previously that Labor has been derelict in not attempting to abolish the discredited group voting ticket system for the upper house during its 12 years in power. ABC election analyst Antony Green said the electoral commission needs the law to be changed by August to be implemented at the election. But there’s only one more Victorian parliament sitting week before August, in late July.
Newspoll federal aggregate data for April to June
The Australian released Newspoll aggregate data last Friday for the four surveys conducted between April 12 and June 26. The overall sample was 4,962. National primary votes gave Labor 31% (down one since the January to March Newspoll aggregate), One Nation 28% (up three), the Coalition 19% (down one), the Greens 12% (steady) and all Others 10% (down one).
In New South Wales, Labor had 31% (steady), One Nation 29% (up two), the Coalition 16% (down two) and the Greens 13% (up one). In Victoria, Labor had 28% (down four), One Nation 25% (up four), the Coalition 21% (down one) and the Greens 14% (steady). In Queensland, One Nation had 32% (up two), Labor 30% (up three), the Coalition 22% (down one) and the Greens 9% (down two).
In Western Australia, Labor had 32% (down two), One Nation 26% (down one), the Coalition 22% (up two) and the Greens 12% (up three). In South Australia, Labor had 32% (down seven), One Nation 32% (up five), the Coalition 16% (up three) and the Greens 14% (up two).
One Nation had 33% among those without a tertiary education (down one), Labor 27% (steady), the Coalition 20% (up one) and the Greens 12% (steady). Among those with a TAFE education, One Nation had 36% (up six), Labor 28% (down one), the Coalition 16% (down three) and the Greens 10% (steady).
But among those with a university education, Labor had 38% (up two), the Coalition 20% (down one), One Nation 17% (up one) and the Greens 14% (up one).
The slumps for Labor in Victoria and SA are probably due to an unpopular state Labor government in Victoria and Labor coming off its high in SA after the March state election where Labor was easily re-elected.
Morgan poll: One Nation slumps again
A national Morgan poll, conducted June 29 to July 5 from a sample of 1,584, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (steady since the June 22–28 Morgan poll), One Nation 22.5% (down 3.5), the Coalition 21.5% (steady), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 14% (up 2.5).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 56–44, a three-point gain for Labor. Labor led the Coalition by 55–45, a 1.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a 1.5-point gain for Labor.
One Nation’s primary vote has slumped nine points from a high of 31.5% in the June 15–21 Morgan poll, and Labor’s two-party lead against One Nation has blown out from 51–49 to 56–44. Combined primary vote support for the Coalition and One Nation has dropped from 49% to 44%.
Essential poll additional questions
I previously covered the late June federal Essential poll. In additional questions, by 62–28 Australian respondents gave Donald Trump an unfavourable rating, with his favourable percentage down eight points since July 2024.
Respondents were asked for their views on other countries. They were most negative on Iran (57–11 negative), followed by Russia (57–13), Syria (44–14), Israel (45–19), Palestine (41–20), China (39–24), the US (40–29) and India (29–24). Countries perceived positively were Indonesia (by 31–20), Ukraine (41–20), European nations (47–14) and the UK (53–16).
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
