Albanese’s ratings jump in federal polls; Liberals easily retain Nepean at Victorian byelection

In both the Redbridge and Freshwater polls, Anthony Albanese’s net favourability has jumped eight points since late March to -9. In Redbridge, the Coalition rebounded from a low of 17% in March to 22%.

The Liberals have easily held the Victorian state seat of Nepean at a byelection on Saturday. In Tasmanian upper house elections also on Saturday, a left-wing independent is likely to gain the seat of Huon from a conservative independent.

Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll^[1], conducted April 24–30 from a sample of 1,014, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (down one since the previous Redbridge poll^[2] in late March), One Nation 27% (down two), the Coalition 22% (up five), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 7% (down two).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor. Labor led One Nation by 55–45, a two-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a two-point gain for the Coalition. The March poll’s respondent preferences were likely too weak for Labor.

Albanese’s net favourability jumped eight points to -9. Angus Taylor was up one point to -2, Pauline Hanson up two points to -1, Nationals leader Matt Canavan up one point to -2, Greens leader Larissa Waters down one point to -4 and Energy Minister Chris Bowen down two points since December to -16.

US President Donald Trump had by far the worst net favourability with Australians, down three points since March to -58.

In a three-way preferred PM question, there was no change, with Albanese at 33%, Hanson 23% and Taylor 14%.

Combining the issue scores of Labor and the Greens against the Coalition and One Nation, the right led by 37–30 on cost of living, 33–28 on housing, 53–22 on immigration, 41–26 on national security and by 42–30 on economic management. The left’s one lead was on healthcare, by 35–31.

Freshwater poll

A national Freshwater poll^[3] for News Corp, conducted April 28–30 from a sample of 1,046, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote, One Nation 25%, the Coalition 23%, the Greens 12% and all Others 8%, with no changes since the late March Freshwater poll^[4]. By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a two-point gain for Labor.

Albanese’s net favourability jumped eight points to -9, Taylor’s was down four points to +10, Hanson’s was down five points to +5 and Canavan debuted at +4. Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 44–38 (42–36 previously).

Cost of living was rated the most important issue by 44%, with housing the only other issue in double digits at 12%. By 47–32, respondents were dissatisfied with the government over the rise in fuel prices, a big improvement from 59–18 dissatisfied previously.

By 37–33, respondents were dissatisfied with the government’s response to the Iran war (33–31 previously). By 37–34, they were dissatisfied with the response to the Bondi terrorist attacks. By 41–27, they were dissatisfied with the response to the rise in antisemitism. By 38–31, they thought the government was enforcing the social media ban on children under 16 poorly.

By 63–31, respondents were aware of the government’s plans to cut the NDIS. By 47–25, they supported the NDIS cuts.

Liberals retain Nepean at Victorian byelection

A Victorian state byelection occurred in Liberal-held Nepean on Saturday after the resignation of MP Sam Groth. Primary votes were 38.5% for Liberal Anthony Marsh (down 8.5% since the 2022 election), 24.7% One Nation (new), 21.7% for teal independent Tracee Hutchison (new), 9.3% Greens (up 0.5%) and 2.9% Legalise Cannabis (new). Labor did not contest^[5] after receiving 32.6% at the 2022 election.

The electoral commission selected Marsh and Hutchison as its final two candidates. Marsh defeated Hutchison by 63.5–36.5 (56.7–43.3 to the Liberals against Labor in 2922).

Although One Nation has a 3.0% primary lead over Hutchison, The Poll Bludger’s^[6] projections have Hutchison beating One Nation into second by 30.6–28.3 on Greens’ preferences. Even if One Nation remains second, the Liberals will still win easily.

This was a good result for the Liberals in easily beating both One Nation and a teal independent. The last Victorian Resolve poll^[7] suggested the Coalition is the favourite to win the late November state election, but One Nation could win enough seats to hold the balance of power.

Tasmanian upper house elections

The 15 members of Tasmania’s upper house have rotating six-year terms. Every May, two or three of the 15 seats are up for election. On Saturday, elections occurred in Huon (held by conservative independent Dean Harriss) and Rosevears (held by Liberal Jo Palmer). Analyst Kevin Bonham has profiles^[8] of the candidates.

Only primary votes were counted^[9] on Saturday, with the winners to be determined by a full distribution of preferences when nearly all votes are counted. Most postal votes won’t be included until Thursday.

In Huon^[10], Harriss won 30.4% of the primary vote, left-wing independent Clare Glade-Wright 27.8%, Labor 16.5%, the Greens 15.3% and two other independents a combined 10.0%. I expect Labor and Greens preferences to help Glade-Wright, and she is likely to gain Huon from Harriss.

In Rosevears^[11], Palmer won 42.6% of the primary vote, Labor 24.7%, the Greens 16.8% and independent Susan Monson 16.0%. Postals are likely to further assist Palmer. Greens’ preferences will flow strongly to Labor, but Palmer is far ahead on primary votes, and Labor would also need a strong flow on Monson’s preferences. The Liberals are very likely to hold Rosevears.

The current upper house has three Liberals, three Labor, one Green and eight independents. If the results in Huon and Rosevears are as expected, there would be no change in party standings, but a left-wing independent would replace a conservative independent. Bonham says Labor has voted with the Liberals^[12] in the upper house more often than any other member.

References

1. ^{^} Redbridge and Accent Research poll (www.afr.com)
2. ^{^} previous Redbridge poll (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} Freshwater poll (www.couriermail.com.au)
4. ^{^} late March Freshwater poll (theconversation.com)
5. ^{^} did not contest (pollbludger.net)
6. ^{^} The Poll Bludger’s (www.pollbludger.net)
7. ^{^} Victorian Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
8. ^{^} Kevin Bonham has profiles (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
9. ^{^} primary votes were counted (app4.vision6.com.au)
10. ^{^} Huon (www.tec.tas.gov.au)
11. ^{^} Rosevears (www.tec.tas.gov.au)
12. ^{^} Labor has voted with the Liberals (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)