Three early January polls have Labor down, but disagree on One Nation’s vote
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Three early January national polls have Labor sliding to between 52–53% two party preferred against the Coalition, down from around 55% to Labor before Anika Wells’ expenses scandal[1] and Bondi. These polls are the worst for Labor since they unexpectedly won the May 2025 federal election in a landslide.
The three polls disagree on One Nation and the Coalition’s vote. In Morgan, the Coalition is actually ahead of Labor on primary votes by 30.5–30, with One Nation at 15%. In Fox & Hedgehog, Labor has 29% of the primary vote, the Coalition 25% and One Nation 21%. And in DemosAU, Labor has 29% with the Coalition and One Nation tied at 23% each.
Labor’s slide in the polls began with the expenses scandal and appears to have been worsened by fallout from Bondi. But just because Labor has lost support doesn’t mean they will keep losing it.
DemosAU has One Nation surging to tie with Coalition
A national DemosAU poll[2], conducted January 5–6 from a sample of 1,027, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down four since the October to November DemosAU MRP poll[3]), the Coalition 23% (down one), One Nation 23% (up six), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 13% (steady).
Based on 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a four-point gain for the Coalition. The pollster estimated a 50–50 tie between Labor and One Nation based on one seat (Hunter), where Coalition preferences were distributed at the election in a contest between Labor and One Nation.
Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 41% negative, 30% neutral, 29% positive (net -12), while Sussan Ley was at 28% negative, 55% neutral, 17% positive (net -11). Albanese led Ley by 42–29 as preferred PM.
Fox & Hedgehog poll
A national poll by new pollster Fox & Hedgehog[4] for the News Corp papers, conducted January 5–6 from a sample of 1,608, gave Labor a 53–47 lead over the Coalition by respondent preferences and a 56–44 lead over One Nation.
Primary votes were 29% Labor, 25% Coalition, 21% One Nation, 14% Greens and 11% for all Others. By 2025 election flows, Labor would lead the Coalition by about 53–47.
Albanese had a net approval of -15, with 48% disapproving and 33% approving, while Ley was at -13 net approval. Albanese led Ley by 39–31 as preferred PM.
Federal Labor’s net approval was -10, the federal Liberals were at -10, One Nation at -1, Pauline Hanson at -3 and Greens leader Larissa Waters at -9, with 45% who had never heard of her.
By 54–19, respondents supported a royal commission into the Bondi terror attack. By 54–22, they thought there should be a pause to all migration to Australia other than tourism. By 47–26, they thought Australia should remain committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll[5], conducted January 5–11 from a sample of 1,676, gave Labor a 52–48 lead by respondent preferences, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since the December 8–14 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 30.5% Coalition (up three), 30% Labor (down 0.5), 15% One Nation (down two), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5) and 11% for all Others (down one). By 2025 election flows, Labor led by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition from my estimate for the December 8–14 poll.
The previous Morgan poll[6] was taken after the expenses scandal but before Bondi, suggesting that Bondi caused a further erosion for Labor.
Queensland Redbridge poll has big LNP lead
A Queensland state Redbridge and Accent Research poll[7] for The Financial Review, conducted November 24 to December 8 from a sample of 818, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) a 56–44 lead, from primary votes of 40% LNP, 27% Labor, 16% One Nation, 12% Greens and 5% for all Others.
By 54–30, respondents thought the Crisafulli LNP government has the right focus and priorities. By 54–28, they did not think Steven Miles and Labor have done enough to deserve to win the next election.
Resolve’s Queensland polls[8] have been weaker for the LNP than other polls. An October DemosAU poll[9] gave the LNP a 54–46 lead. The LNP gained a seat at a recent byelection[10] from the Katter party.
UK Labour falls to third in polls
I wrote for The Poll Bludger[11] on December 27 that United Kingdom Labour has fallen to third in the polls, behind the far-right Reform and the Conservatives. This article also covered polls in major western European countries and in some countries with elections this year.
References
- ^ expenses scandal (theconversation.com)
- ^ DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
- ^ October to November DemosAU MRP poll (demosau.com)
- ^ Fox & Hedgehog (drive.google.com)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ previous Morgan poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Queensland state Redbridge and Accent Research poll (b86980f8-eefa-4834-a649-9fbe8b8b3922.usrfiles.com)
- ^ Queensland polls (theconversation.com)
- ^ October DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
- ^ a recent byelection (theconversation.com)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
