Mon Nov 3

Unmoored Ley has the appearance of a dead woman walking

Written by: Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley is looking like a dead woman walking.

The latest devastating Newspoll ^[1], which has Labor leading the Coalition 57–43% on the two-party vote and Ley’s net approval at minus–33, would be devastating at any time.

Her net approval has dropped 13 points since the previous poll ^[2], with her ill-judged remarks about US Ambassador Kevin Rudd ^[3] and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Joy Division T-shirt ^[4] no doubt contributing to the markdown.

Ley would be in terrible shape any time with these figures, let alone when the Liberals and the Coalition are in an existential crisis over energy policy, making her challenges over the coming days dire.

The Liberals are split over the 2050 net-zero target ^[5], but now that the Nationals have dumped it ^[6], they are inevitably being dragged closer to the position of the minor party.

Ley in the past said she wanted to see net zero reached as soon as possible. Now she will struggle to have the Liberals retain any commitment to it, even as an aspiration.

A few weeks ago, Angus Taylor, her main leadership rival, was said to be willing to go along with a compromise that involved net zero in some form, despite personal opposition to it.

Now, Taylor is said to be close to the Nationals’ position.

The Liberal moderates, especially the Liberals’ deputy Senate leader, Anne Ruston, are fighting a rearguard action. Ruston reportedly said in a Sunday meeting of senior Liberals that the Nationals were again putting a gun to the heads of the Liberals. Asked about this on Sky on Monday, Ruston said she didn’t talk about private meetings, but did not deny the report.

Another moderate, NSW Senator Andrew Bragg, told Sky “we should do net zero better than Labor’s done it”.

“I think, as I’ve said before, that you can get to net zero at some stage this century.”

Some moderates would be happy enough to see the Coalition split; so would some Nationals.

It’s not just Ley who’s in a weak leadership position – so is the Nationals’ David Littleproud, who has been pulled to the right by his own troops.

Most of the Nationals have never been keen on net zero, but the spike in One Nation’s vote in recent polls – a massive 15% in Newspoll ^[7] – is concentrating their minds on the danger of being outflanked on the right.

It would take an opposition leader of enormous authority to find a way through this chaos, and Ley carries little or no authority.

No one can criticise her work rate, or her attempts to tap into the community. She tells her personal story, that of a varied life, as she tries to get known. But she lacks a strong framework of political beliefs to project. She comes across as unmoored.

Ley’s multiple enemies and critics want – and mostly expect – to see her removed. But they don’t want that to happen now. Ditching the Liberals’ first female leader six months in would look very bad, a caricature of a party with a “woman problem”.

With her opponents thinking it would be indecently early to move against her, Ley will be left in limbo. Then at some point, the Liberals will change leaders and quite probably remain as badly off.