Labor makes Senate gains, and left-wing parties will hold a Senate majority

On Saturday, Labor won a thumping victory^[1] in the House of Representatives, and this has carried over to the Senate results.

Only 35% of enrolled voters have been counted in the Senate so far, compared with 71% in the House. It’s likely that the current Senate count is biased to Labor, so Labor is likely to drop back in some states as more votes are counted.

There are 76 senators, who have six-year terms, with about half up for election at every House election. Each state has 12 senators, with six up for election, and the territories have two senators each, who are all up for election.

Senators are elected by proportional representation with preferences. A quota in a state is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. In the territories, it’s one-third or 33.3%. I had a Senate preview^[2] on April 16.

Comments on each state are below. I disagree with the ABC’s view^[3] that Labor is “likely” to win a third New South Wales seat. Putting this seat into the doubtful column reduces Labor to an overall 27 senators with the Greens on 11, so the two main left-wing parties would hold a minimum 38 of the 76 seats in the new Senate.

This would represent a two-seat gain for Labor (one in Queensland, one in South Australia). Labor has reasonable chances to gain further Senate seats.

If Labor and the Greens combined hold the minimum 38 seats after the election, Labor will only need one more vote to pass legislation supported by the Greens but opposed by right-wing parties. Independent David Pocock, former Green Lidia Thorpe and former Labor senator Fatima Payman will be good options.

In NSW^[4], Labor has 2.6 quotas, the Coalition 1.9, the Greens 0.9 and One Nation 0.4. Labor would win three seats on current primaries, but the Senate swing to them is much greater than in the House, so they will drop back.

In Victoria, Labor has 2.4 quotas, the Coalition 1.9, the Greens 1.0, One Nation 0.3 and Legalise Cannabis 0.3. Labor is likely to drop back, with the final seat likely a three-way contest between Labor, One Nation and Legalise Cannabis.

In Queensland, Labor has 2.1 quotas, the Liberal National Party 1.8, the Greens 0.9, One Nation 0.5 and former LNP senator Gerard Rennick 0.35. One Nation is the favourite to win the sixth seat.

In Western Australia, Labor has 2.4 quotas, the Liberals 1.7, the Greens 1.1, One Nation 0.4, Legalise Cannabis 0.3 and the Nationals 0.3. Labor would be the favourite to win the sixth seat on current counting, as the Liberals would absorb right-wing preferences that would otherwise help One Nation.

In SA, Labor has 2.6 quotas, the Liberals 1.8, the Greens 1.0 and One Nation 0.4. Labor won the House vote in SA by 58.4–41.6, so the Senate result looks plausible. Labor and the Greens are likely to win four of SA’s six Senate seats.

In Tasmania, Labor has 2.4 quotas, the Liberals 1.5, the Greens 1.2, Jacqui Lambie 0.5, One Nation 0.4 and Legalise Cannabis 0.3. It’s difficult to determine which parties are the favourites to win the last two seats.

In the ACT (two senators), Pocock has been easily re-elected with 1.3 quotas, and Labor will win the second seat. In the Northern Territory, Labor and the Country Liberals will win one seat each.

There are many seats where the electoral commission^[5] selected the incorrect final two candidates on election night and now needs to redo this count. Labor could lose Bean, Fremantle or Calwell to independents. Labor could also lose Bullwinkel or Bendigo to the Coalition.

The Greens have lost Brisbane and Griffith to Labor. They lost Brisbane after falling to third behind Labor and the LNP and Griffith because the LNP fell to third and their preferences will help Labor. Labor is narrowly ahead against the Greens in Wills.

In Greens leader Adam Bandt’s Melbourne^[6], there was a substantial primary vote swing to Labor and against Bandt, and the electoral commission needs to redo the preference count between Bandt and Labor.

Teal independents in Kooyong, Goldstein and Curtin are likely to retain their seats, but they didn’t gain substantial swings that usually occur when an independent elected at the last election recontests. It’s possible they’ve become too associated with the left in their seats. Fortunately for them, the left won a thumping victory at this election.

References

1. ^{^} Labor won a thumping victory (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} Senate preview (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} ABC’s view (www.abc.net.au)
4. ^{^} NSW (www.abc.net.au)
5. ^{^} many seats where the electoral commission (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
6. ^{^} Melbourne (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)