Labor gains 5-point lead in a YouGov poll, taken during Trump tariff chaos
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national YouGov poll[1], conducted April 4–10 from a sample of 1,505, gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the March 28 to April 3 YouGov poll[2]. This is Labor’s best result in YouGov for 18 months, and slightly better for Labor than the 2022 election result (52.1–47.9 to Labor).
Primary votes were 33.5% Coalition (down 1.5), 32% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 8.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (down one), 9% independents (down one) and 3% others (steady). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by over 53.5–46.5.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved four points to -2, with 47% dissatisfied and 45% satisfied. In the last two weeks, Albanese has gained seven points on net approval. Peter Dutton’s net approval was steady at -15. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 48–37 (45–38 previously).
The only other national poll since last Sunday’s article[3] was a Morgan poll that also had Labor extending its lead. The poll graph below shows Labor has kept improving in the polls since early March. With three weeks to go until the May 3 election, Labor is the likely winner.
The YouGov poll was taken during the period after Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, leading to a week of chaos on the stock markets. While US markets had their biggest one-day gain since 2008 on Wednesday after Trump suspended some of his tariffs[4] for 90 days, they slumped again Thursday[5] owing to the very high tariffs on China.
I believe the more Trump is in the news for doing things that potentially damage the US and world economies, the more Labor will be assisted in the polls by not being the more pro-Trump major party.
Candidate nominations for the federal election will be declared today after they closed Thursday. If candidates now embarrass their party, they can’t be replaced but only disendorsed; their names will still appear on the ballot paper.
Morgan poll: Labor increases solid lead
A national Morgan poll[6], conducted March 31 to April 4 from a sample of 1,481, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the March 24–30 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 33% Coalition (down two), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 6% One Nation (up 0.5), 1.5% Trumpet of Patriots (new for this pollster), 9% independents (down 1.5) and 4.5% others. By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor.
By 52–33, voters said the country was going in the wrong direction (51.5–32 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index[7] increased 1.5 points to 86.8; this poll was taken before the stock market falls.
Politicians’ net favourable ratings and seat polls
I previously covered[8] a national Redbridge poll for the News Corp tabloids that gave Labor a 52–48 lead. This poll asked about net favourable ratings[9] for various politicians. Jacqui Lambie was at net -1 favourable, Albanese at -4, Dutton at -15, Greens leader Adam Bandt at -17, Pauline Hanson at -23 and Clive Palmer at -49.
The Poll Bludger reported[11] on Thursday a seat poll of McMahon by right-wing pollster Compass had Labor incumbent Chris Bowen on just 19% of the primary vote (48.0% in 2022). Bowen trailed the Liberals on 20% and right-wing independent Matt Camenzuli on 41%. The Poll Bludger was very sceptical of this poll.
A uComms seat poll of Teal-held Wentworth for Climate 200 had teal Allegra Spender leading the Liberals by 58–42 (55.9–44.1 at the 2022 election adjusted for a redistribution[12]). Neither of the polls above gave fieldwork dates, with both having a sample over 1,000. Seat polls are unreliable.
Canadian and South Korean elections
The Canadian election is on April 28, and it’s increasingly likely the governing centre-left Liberals will win a seat majority after they were 24 points behind the Conservatives in early January. There hasn’t been much movement from the Trump tariff chaos in the last week, but Trump’s US ratings are down.
On April 4, South Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld the right-wing president’s impeachment by parliament in December after he declared martial law. A new presidential election was required and will be held on June 3. The centre-left Democrats are very likely to win, and they already have a big parliamentary majority. I covered these elections for The Poll Bludger[13] on Thursday.
Victorian state Redbridge poll: Coalition narrowly ahead
A Victorian state Redbridge poll[14], reported in The Herald Sun, was conducted March 24 to April 2 from a sample of 2,013. It gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since November. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (down two), 29% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down one) and 17% for all Others (up four). This poll is not as bad for Labor as other recent Victorian polls.
Liberal leader Brad Battin was at +2 net favourable while Labor Premier Jacinta Allan was at a dismal -35. By 52–27, voters did not think the Labor government had the right priorities. By 46–29, voters supported the Suburban Rail Loop. Over 50% thought the government’s changes to machete and bail laws too lenient.
References
- ^ YouGov poll (au.yougov.com)
- ^ YouGov poll (au.yougov.com)
- ^ last Sunday’s article (theconversation.com)
- ^ Trump suspended some of his tariffs (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ slumped again Thursday (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ consumer confidence index (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ previously covered (theconversation.com)
- ^ about net favourable ratings (www.heraldsun.com.au)
- ^ Mick Tsikas/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger reported (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ adjusted for a redistribution (pollbludger.net)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ state Redbridge poll (www.heraldsun.com.au)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
