Labor faces risk of Victorians using federal poll as referendum on both Allan and Albanese governments

The weekend byelection in the outer suburban seat of Werribee saw the widely-anticipated slap-in-the-face to Victorian Labor, which is absolutely on the nose. The question is: to what degree were electors venting against federal Labor too?

With an abundance of caution, the Albanese government would do best to assume it was being given a substantial kick.

Even if the largest slice of the about 10% two-party swing was prompted by state factors, including the sheer arrogance of the byelection  (a state treasurer departing mid-term), we know federal Labor is doing badly in Victoria.

There is certainly enough of a message in the result in Werribee (which on present numbers Labor is expected to just retain) to flag a potential serious erosion of federal seats come the national election.

One challenge for federal Labor is to turn Victorian voters’ attention away from state matters, to focus squarely on the choice between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.

Labor needs to minimise the extent to which Victorians use the federal election to take out their anger towards the Allan government. So far, only the Werribee voters have had the chance to get some of that frustration out of their systems. The federal opposition will seek to milk feelings about the Allan government.

Regardless of that, we know Dutton has become more acceptable in Victoria than he was a couple of years ago.

As things stand, Labor is set to lose federal seats in this state where the Liberals have struggled, and the state Liberal organisation has been a shambles. It is a matter of how many.

While the Liberals will be delighted with the Werribee result, the hardheads will note that although the Labor primary vote fell nearly 17% the Liberal vote only rose 3.7%. Partly this might reflect the fact that in Labor heartland, the disillusioned voters wanted to protest but not jump the aisle to the Liberals. Nevertheless, there is the message, applicable federally, that the Liberals need to be attracting more primary votes, not just relying on Labor losing them to independents and small parties.

Once again, we see reflected in this byelection the relative collapse of the two party system. Labor polled 28.7% of the primary vote; the Liberals 29%. fewer than six in ten voters supported one of the major parties.

Depending on your viewpoint, you can see the decline of the two party system as a portend of future instability in our politics, or the continued indication of a fresh new direction. Federally, the present money is on minority government.

In Saturday’s other Victorian byelection, the Liberals wrested the inner city seat of Prahran from the Greens. There was no Labor candidate.

The Greens, on 36.2% of the vote, attempt to take comfort that  the swing against them on primary votes was only 0.6%. But a loss is a loss, whatever the margin, and this setback, on top of those in the recent ACT and Queensland elections, must put fears into the party about the fate of the three Queensland federal seats it won in 2022.

With some Labor supporters deeply pessimistic and some Liberals wildly optimistic, both sides are trying to manage expectations  about where the election battle stands nationally.

Labor finds some heart from comparing Newspoll’s now and at comparable points before changes of government.

The Dutton opposition in the first Newspoll of 2025 was on 51% of the two-party vote.

By contrast, in the first Newspoll of 1996, the Howard opposition had a two-party vote of 54%.

Newspoll in August 2007 (about 100 days before  the election)  saw the Rudd opposition on 56%. In  May 2013, with about 100 days to voting, the Abbott opposition was polling 55% in two-party terms. The first Newspoll of 2022 had the Albanese opposition on 56%.

Governor Michele Bullock will deliver the next big marker on the political calendar when the Reserve Bank announces next week whether it will cut interest rates.

If it does, there will be a frenzy of speculation about the election being held in April, which would mean scrapping the scheduled March 25 budget.

Quite how Albanese would explain this, when he and his ministers say every other day how much work is being done on that budget, is unclear. Those in Labor who are in the camp of a May election say the government needs time for an interest rate cut to flow through.

Only one man determines the timing, and he’s on record recently saying the date remained “fluid”.