Kamala Harris edges ahead of Donald Trump in national polls for US election
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. Election analyst Nate Silver’s national poll aggregate[1] has Democratic nominee and current vice president Kamala Harris leading Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump by 45.5–44.1%, with 5.0% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
When President Joe Biden withdrew from the contest on July 21, Trump had a 45.2–41.2% lead over Biden[2], so Harris has improved on Biden’s net margin by 5.4 points. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump is now 78 and Harris will be 60.
Silver’s model gave Trump a 73% chance to win the election when Biden was his opponent. When the Harris vs Trump model was launched last Tuesday, Trump had a 62% chance to win. The model now gives Harris very slight favouritism, with a 50.5% chance to win.
The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes based mostly on population. Almost all states award their electoral votes winner takes all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).
Silver’s model gives Harris a 66% chance to win the popular vote, compared to a 50.5% chance in the Electoral College. The model indicates Harris needs to win the popular vote by at least two points to be the favourite to win the Electoral College.
It’s still very close to a 50–50 chance for either Harris or Trump, but Harris has greatly improved on the situation under Biden. Switching from Biden to Harris was clearly the correct decision for Democrats.
In economic data, the unemployment rate[3] rose 0.2% to 4.3% in July, the highest it has been since October 2021, when the US was recovering from the COVID recession. A weaker economy is likely to assist Trump.
Australian politics: the inflation report
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the June quarter inflation report[4] on July 31.
Inflation increased 1%, the same as in the March quarter, for a 12-month rate of 3.8%. However, the trimmed mean and weighted median measures of core inflation were both lower than headline inflation at 0.8% in the June quarter.
The ABC reported[5] economists thought an interest rate rise was unlikely after this inflation report, and the next interest rate move is much more likely to be down, though not until early 2025.
The cost of living has been by far voters’ biggest concern, so this report is modest good news for Labor. The polls below include a bad Redbridge poll for Labor that was conducted in mid-July.
Essential poll: Labor gains to be just ahead
A national Essential poll[6], conducted July 24–28 from a sample of 1,137, gave Labor a 47–46% lead including undecided, a reversal of a 48–46% Coalition lead in mid-July.
Primary votes were 34% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (up three), 11% Greens (down two), 7% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (steady).
This is the second Labor lead in Essential’s fortnightly polls since April. Labor’s poor position in this poll has been partly due to weak respondent allocated preference flows.
Anthony Albanese had a -3 net approval[7], up six points since early July, with 46% disapproving and 43% approving. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved two points to +1.
By 56–36%, Australians had an unfavourable opinion of Trump, a large improvement for Trump from 72–20% unfavourable after the 2020 US election. By 48–25%, they had a favourable opinion of Harris. By 37–23%, voters thought Australia’s relationship with the US would become worse if Trump is elected president.
On union membership, 11% said they were currently union members, 28% were not currently members but had been previously and 58% had never been a member. By 64–26%, voters thought unions important (60–24% in 2020). By 51–26%, they thought workers would be better off with stronger unions (50–24% in 2020).
Labor’s relationship with unions was thought too close by 33%, about right by 33% and not close enough by 10%.
Morgan poll: 50.5–49.5% to Labor
A national Morgan poll[8], conducted July 15–21 from a sample of 1,752, gave the Coalition a 51–49% lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the July 8–14 poll.
In the Morgan poll[9] conducted July 22–28 from a sample of 1,652, Labor led by 50.5–49.5%.
Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (down two since July 15–21), 30.5% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (steady), 6.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 8.5% independents (up one) and 4% others (up 0.5).
Using preferences allocated by 2022 election flows, Labor led by 51–49%, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.
Redbridge poll: big swing to Coalition gives them lead
A national Redbridge poll, conducted July 10–19 from a sample of 1,505, gave the Coalition a 51.5–48.5% lead, a 3.5-point gain for the Coalition since a Redbridge April poll[11].
Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up four), 32% Labor (down one), 11% Greens (down one) and 16% for all Others (down two).
By 48–27%, voters did not think the Albanese government was focused on the right priorities (50–34% in April). By 40–34%, they did not think the Coalition led by Dutton is ready for government (45–36% previously).
By 38–37%, voters opposed the development of nuclear power plants, but by 33–29% they thought the Coalition had a better plan than Labor for future energy reliability and affordability.
YouGov poll: 51–49% to Labor
A national YouGov poll[12], conducted July 12–17 from a sample of 1,528, gave Labor a 51–49% lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous YouGov poll in early June[13].
Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (down one) and 11% for all Others (up one).
Albanese’s net approval improved two points to -10, with 52% satisfied and 42% dissatisfied. Dutton’s net approval surged nine points to -4. Albanese led as preferred PM by 45–37% (47–36% in June).
When asked whether they could name something the government had done to make them personally financially better off, 73% said “no” and 27% “yes”, with tax cuts the most popular at 10%. Asked the same question in a poll before the May budget, 82% had responded “no”.
In additional questions[14] from the previous YouGov poll, 31% had a leaning towards more capitalism, 27% towards more socialism and 42% were neutral. By 50–27%, voters thought the government should support low-cost airlines[15].
References
- ^ national poll aggregate (www.natesilver.net)
- ^ lead over Biden (www.natesilver.net)
- ^ unemployment rate (www.bls.gov)
- ^ June quarter inflation report (www.abs.gov.au)
- ^ ABC reported (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ net approval (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ Bianca De Marchi/AAP (www.photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ Redbridge April poll (redbridgegroup.com.au)
- ^ national YouGov poll (au.yougov.com)
- ^ in early June (au.yougov.com)
- ^ additional questions (au.yougov.com)
- ^ support low-cost airlines (au.yougov.com)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
