Albanese’s ratings surge in YouGov poll; Tasmanian poll suggests difficult to form government
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national YouGov poll[1], conducted February 24 to March 5 from a sample of 1,539, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since an early February YouGov poll. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (steady), 15% Greens (up two), 6% One Nation (down two) and 10% for all Others (down one).
Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped ten points to -6, with 50% dissatisfied and 44% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down two points to -10. For the first time since the Voice referendum, Albanese’s net approval is higher than Dutton’s. Albanese led Dutton by 48–34 as preferred PM (45–38 in February).
By 86–14, respondents supported Australians having a right to disconnect from work outside outside of hours. Dutton has said he would overturn Labor’s right to disconnect legislation if elected.
On this pledge, 35% said they were less likely to vote for the Coalition, 17% more likely and 48% no difference. These “more likely/less likely” to support a party given X questions usually exaggerate the issue’s salience.
In another encouraging national poll for Labor, the Morgan poll[2] gave them a 53.5–46.5 lead, a 3.5-point gain for Labor since last week. Primary votes were 36.5% Coalition (down 1.5), 34% Labor (up 2.5), 13.5% Greens (up 1.5), 3.5% One Nation (down 1.5) and 12.5% for all Others (down one). This poll was conducted February 26 to March 3 from a sample of 1,679.
The large majority of both the YouGov and Morgan polls’ fieldwork was before the Dunkley byelection. If this byelection had an effect on voting intentions, it won’t be part of these polls.
Dunkley byelection near-final result
With almost all votes counted in the federal March 2 Dunkley byelection[3], Labor won by 52.7–47.3, a 3.6% swing to the Liberals since the 2022 election. Primary votes were 41.1% Labor (up 0.8%), 39.3% Liberals (up 6.8%), 6.3% Greens (down 4.0%), 4.7% for independent Darren Bergwerf (up 0.9%) and 3.1% Animal Justice (up 1.0%).
The primary votes of both major parties, but especially the Liberals, benefited from the absence of the UAP and One Nation, who had a combined 7.9% in 2022. The Greens’ result was poor.
The swing to the Liberals was below the 6.1% average swing[4] against the government in a government-held seat at a byelection. Owing to the loss of the sitting MP’s personal vote, government-held seats swing much more than opposition-held seats.
An early February uComms poll[5] for The Australia Institute had given Labor a 52–48 lead in Dunkley. A mid-February YouGov poll[6] had given the Liberals a 51–49 lead.
Tasmanian Redbridge poll: difficult to form a government
The Tasmanian state election is on March 23. A Redbridge poll[7] for The Financial Review, conducted February 16–28 from a sample of 753, gave the Liberals 33% of the vote, Labor 29%, the Greens 14%, the Jacqui Lambie Network 10% and independents 14%.
Tasmania uses the Hare Clark proportional representation system, with 35 total lower house seats elected in five seven-member electorates. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote or 12.5%.
Analyst Kevin Bonham’s seat estimate[8] from the Redbridge poll is 13–14 Liberals, 10–12 Labor, 4–5 Greens, 2–3 JLN and 2–6 independents. While the Liberals would be the largest party, it would be difficult for either major party to reach the 18 votes needed for a majority.
There were two polls[9] taken in the first week of the election campaign that had the Liberals much better placed to form a minority government.
NSW Resolve poll: Coalition support surges
A NSW state Resolve poll[10] for The Sydney Morning Herald, presumably conducted with the federal Resolve polls in December and February from a sample of 1,035, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up six since November), Labor 34% (down two), the Greens 12% (down one), independents 12% (steady) and others 5% (down two).
Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until close to elections. The SMH article says “Labor is trailing the Coalition”, but the likely effect of preferences would give Labor about a 51.5–48.5 lead according to The Poll Bludger[11]. Resolve’s polls have usually been much better for Labor than other polls, but the February federal Resolve[12] poll had a slump for Labor.
Labor Premier Chris Minns had a 35–16 lead over the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier (35–13 in November).
NSW Secularists’ national YouGov poll
The Secular Association of New South Wales has sent me details of a national YouGov poll conducted for them. This poll was conducted February 15–21 from a sample of 1,087.
By 55–45, respondents said they were not aware that their state has its own constitution separate from the federal constitution. Those who said they were aware of their state’s constitution were asked if they had seen or read it. Just 13% said they had read their state’s constitution, which is 6% of the overall sample.
For the third and final question, voters were told that Australia has no formal recognition of separation of government and religion, then asked if they would approve or disapprove of a constitutional amendment to formally separate government and religion in their state.
Voters approved of this proposition nationally by 51–20. Smaller subsamples in the eastern seaboard states had approve leading by 48–21 in NSW, 48–22 in Victoria and 50–21 in Queensland. The history of referendums suggests caution, as often big poll leads for a proposal collapse before referendum day.
US Super Tuesday confirms it’s Trump vs Biden
I covered the March 5 United States Super Tuesday primaries for The Poll Bludger[13]. Donald Trump had big wins, and will win the Republican nomination after Nikki Haley withdrew. Joe Biden also dominated the Democratic primaries. In national general election polls, Trump is usually ahead by low single-digit margins.
I also covered the February 29 United Kingdom Rochdale byelection for The Poll Bludger[14]. George Galloway, who has attacked Labour from the left for a long time, won after Labour’s candidate was disendorsed but still appeared on the ballot paper as the disendorsement was after the close of nominations.
References
- ^ national YouGov poll (au.yougov.com)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ Dunkley byelection (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
- ^ average swing (theconversation.com)
- ^ uComms poll (australiainstitute.org.au)
- ^ YouGov poll (au.yougov.com)
- ^ Redbridge poll (www.afr.com)
- ^ Kevin Bonham’s seat estimate (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
- ^ two polls (theconversation.com)
- ^ state Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ February federal Resolve (theconversation.com)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
