The Victorian premier could lose her job just 4 months before a state election. How did it come to this?

After months of rumblings, Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan will face a leadership challenge this week, just four months out from a state election.

Reports emerged on Sunday that Labor factional leaders

met to assess whether Allan retained majority support in the party room. According to some participants, the answer was no.

This morning, senior party figures met with Allan to convey that message and ask her to stand aside. They urged Deputy Premier Ben Carroll to challenge her.

Previously reluctant to put himself forward, Carroll posted on X that he would nominate as a candidate if a spill motion succeeds in a party room meeting — perhaps as soon as Tuesday morning.

Allan has so far declined to resign, declaring her intention to contest any leadership ballot. Should she and Carroll contest the leadership, it could drag out for several weeks.

As a result, the party and the state now enter a period of uncertainty.

An unpopular premier

Labor is facing an uphill battle in November’s state election, and Allan appears to be a drag on the party’s popularity, as well as contending with the fact the government is nearly 12 years old.

When Daniel Andrews resigned in 2023, Allan won unopposed. Although Carroll initially put his hand up for the leadership, he withdrew his nomination and accepted the deputy premiership. Reporting at the time described his retreat as “forced”, avoiding a leadership vote.

Allan has arguably had difficulty stepping out of Andrews’ shadow. The “decade of Dan” drove a sweeping reform agenda and was a highly visible and proactive – even if controversial – government during the COVID lockdowns.

While Allan has largely continued the work of the Andrews era, she also inherited much of its political baggage, without the commanding popularity that let Andrews carry it.

The current Labor government has been dogged by a run of damaging controversies: spiralling state debt, corruption allegations around Victoria’s “Big Build”, difficulties with crime. Together with the cost-of-living squeeze, these issues have shaped the political mood with voters and within the party.

A ‘glass cliff’?

The premier’s gender likely shapes how voters and colleagues assess her management of these issues. Women rise to power in difficult circumstances, as parties appoint female leaders to signal a shift to the electorate. The women placed in these roles often pay a price, known as the “glass cliff”. Facing tough conditions, they are measured by a harsher set of standards than their male counterparts.

As a result, women’s political leadership is often brief and more likely to end by being pushed out or resigning under pressure. The MPs now pushing for a leadership change are hoping a different leader might signal a refresh and give the party a chance to cauterise some of the wounds before the election.

However, Carroll will face his own difficulties, drawing backlash from Labor’s own base in his role as education minister. Just last week, Victorian teachers walked off the job in large numbers after members of the Australian Education Union rejected the government’s second pay and conditions offer. Carroll’s decision to put the revised offer to the AEU the evening before it was circulated to teachers was branded “anti-union” by union president Justin Mullaly, who said no Labor government should behave that way.

What happens next?

This challenge could be resolved in three ways:

1. A contested leadership ballot.

For this to happen, there must first be a successful spill motion brought at a Labor party room meeting. Allan and Carroll — and any other candidates, though none has emerged yet — would then put their names forward, and a leadership election would take place. This is likely to happen on July 28.

Prior to the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd saga, such an election would just have been a vote of the MPs in the room. Since then, Labor has changed its rules. The state leadership now requires a ballot of party rank-and-file members as well as MPs.

Such an election could take more than a month. At the end of it, Labor may elect a new leader or reaffirm Allan’s leadership. Either way, the process could be bruising for Labor, and could require an acting premier for weeks while the election happens.

2. Allan may yet resign.

Allan has given no indication of this so far, but the pressure between now and tomorrow’s party room meeting will be immense, and she may yet be convinced there is no route to victory for her.

If she resigns, Carroll may become leader — and premier — without a vote. This was the way the story played out in Julia Gillard’s challenge against Kevin Rudd in 2010.

3. The challenge could fail.

This seems unlikely, but it will be a very long night of lobbying in Melbourne, during which many things could change. The spill motion could fail; Carroll’s support may evaporate; the challenge might be nipped in the bud.

This was the outcome of an abortive challenge against Tony Abbott in February 2015, and one against David Littleproud earlier this year. Allan would be lucky to escape this way.

Regardless of the outcome, this struggle paints the Victorian government as unstable and divided. Research examining the federal leadership turbulence of the 2010s tells us voters’ satisfaction with democracy was lowered after leadership spills.

Voters are already expressing frustration, distrust and dissatisfaction with Australian party politics. With a state election in November and One Nation’s stocks rising, this leadership turmoil could well add to it.

Emily Foley receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

James C. Murphy and Phoebe Hayman do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.