Further post-budget polls have Labor down, but retaining a clear lead
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
One Nation has gained one to three points in all five federal post-budget polls. The YouGov and Morgan polls agree with the Resolve poll[1] in having Labor down, but retaining a clear lead.
Analyst Kevin Bonham gives Labor[2] a 52.4–47.6 lead against the Coalition, a 0.8-point gain for the Coalition since the budget. He gives Labor a 52.9–47.1 lead against One Nation, a 0.6-point gain for One Nation.
This article also includes state polls from New South Wales and Tasmania. The NSW election is in March 2027.
A national YouGov poll[3] for Sky News, conducted May 12–19 from a sample presumably of 1,500, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (down two since the previous YouGov poll[4] in late April to early May), One Nation 25% (up one), the Coalition 23% (up two), the Greens 13% (down one), independents 5% (steady) and others 6% (steady).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a four-point gain for One Nation. In the last three YouGov polls, Labor has led One Nation by 52–48, 57–43 and now 53–47.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down five points to -19. Albanese led Angus Taylor as better PM by 41–38 (45–36 previously). He led Pauline Hanson by 50–38 (54–35 previously).
By 44–9, respondents said the budget would make them worse off rather than better off. By 38–31, they did not think “Labor’s broken promises” would ease the housing crisis for first home buyers. On immigration, by 62–10 respondents wanted a decrease rather than an increase.
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll[5], conducted May 11–17 from a sample of 1,668, gave Labor 29.5% of the primary vote (down one since the May 4–10 Morgan poll), One Nation 24.5% (up 2.5), the Coalition 24% (down one), the Greens 11.5% (steady) and all Others 10.5% (down 0.5).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by an unchanged[6] 52.5–47.5. This is the regular weekly Morgan poll, not the SMS post-budget Morgan poll[7] that had One Nation on 32%.
Additional Resolve questions
In additional questions[8] from the post-budget Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, by 35–24 the budget was rated bad for “me and my household” and by 32–30 bad for the country as a whole, while respondents were split 31–31 on its effect on the health of the economy.
These ratings are far better than in Newspoll, where the budget was at -25 on its economic impact and -41 on its personal impact. By 31–27, respondents in Resolve thought the budget was good for younger people, but it was thought bad for older people by 37–25 and bad for the less fortunate and disadvantaged by 37–26.
The Liberals led Labor on party best for economic management[9] by 33–23 (34–27 in April). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led Labor by 27–24 (31–25 previously).
NSW Resolve poll has Labor up from low
The New South Wales state election is in March 2027. A Resolve poll[10] for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted May 13–16 from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (up three since the March Resolve poll), the Coalition 26% (up one), One Nation 22% (down one), the Greens 10% (steady), independents 6% (down two) and others 4% (down one).
Labor’s primary vote in March of 29% had been tied for its worst result this term from Resolve, matching the February 2025 poll.
Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls. NSW uses optional preferential voting and this will assist Labor owing to the split in right-wing votes between the Coalition and One Nation.
Labor incumbent Chris Minns led Liberal leader Kellie Sloane as preferred premier by 38–18 (38–17 in March).
Tasmanian EMRS poll has Liberals down and One Nation up
A Tasmanian state EMRS poll[11], conducted May 11–13 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 25% of the vote (down four since the February EMRS poll), Labor 24% (up one), One Nation 19% (up five), the Greens 14% (down one), independents 16% (up one) and others 1% (down two). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two-party estimate is not applicable.
Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net favourability was up three points to +4 (38% favourable, 34% unfavourable), Labor leader Josh Willie’s was steady at -4 (21% unfavourable, 17% favourable) and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff’s was up one point to -5 (28% unfavourable, 23% favourable). Rockliff led Willie as preferred premier by 44–25 (previously 40–26).
References
- ^ Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Kevin Bonham gives Labor (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
- ^ YouGov poll (www.skynews.com.au)
- ^ previous YouGov poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ an unchanged (theconversation.com)
- ^ SMS post-budget Morgan poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ additional questions (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ best for economic management (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Tasmanian state EMRS poll (www.emrs.com.au)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
