Rory Medcalf on Australians’ growing national security fears

Australians have become increasingly anxious about national security – even before the outbreak of the recent US-Israel war with Iran, according to a new report^[1].

The Australian National University’s National Security College surveyed more than 20,000 Australians in November 2024, July 2025 and February 2026. The surveys took in last December’s Bondi terror attack, but predated the current Middle East war.

Non-military threats, such as AI-enabled attacks and disruption to critical supplies, were seen as the most likely threats in the next five years. Fewer than one in five participants felt Australia was “very” or “fully” prepared for any of the 15 security risks in the survey.

Yet a foreign military attack on Australian soil was seen as the most “catastrophic” looming threat. Almost half (45%) of people saw it as a risk within the next five years.

One of the report’s key authors and head of the ANU’s National Security College, Professor Rory Medcalf^[2], joined us on the podcast.

The report found national security worries had “racheted up with each survey”, from 42% of respondents in November 2024 to 64% by February 2026. Medcalf said that finding was “disturbing”.

On some specific issues and particularly terrorism – and of course the atrocity of the Bondi terrorist attack is what punctuated that narrative – we saw very high rises in concern, including among younger Australians, who went from something like a 22% concern about terrorism as a serious security risk, through to 55% from July last year until February this year.

‘Inevitable’ climate risks

While other threats have been getting more attention, Medcalf said Australians remain live to the dangers of climate change and natural disasters.

[Climate change and natural disasters] registered consistently as high concerns as in [at] that the higher end – not the very top, but the higher end of concerns across the community […] There was a very clear difference between younger and older Australians on that issue. Younger Australians were more concerned.

On the other hand, when you looked at the question of the likelihood of shocks, the climate issue actually probably rated highest in terms of inevitability.

The Trump factor

While the Middle East war broke out only after the final survey, Medcalf said the “Trump factor” was apparent even before then.

It’s clear that the Trump factor has had a real impact here. So we took our first of three surveys in November 2024, second [in] July 2025, the third in February 26. And we’ve seen a ratchet of anxiety across that time.

We’ve also seen issues like, for example, the failure of the international rules-based order becoming of great concern.

[…] I hesitate to draw a verified line of causation between [US President] Donald Trump and Australian security anxieties. But there’s so much, I guess, there’s so much by way of evidence that suggests that’s the way people feel.

The researchers also conducted focus groups and individual interviews. Madcalf said those interviews gave a clear sense the US-Australia alliance “is not what it used to be”.

Rays of hope

Despite Australians’ increasing anxieties about national security, Medcalf said there remained some “green shoots”.

The last point that I took some hope from going forward was the response to a question we posed specifically in the aftermath of the Bondi terrorist attack, which was to say that in the aftermath of that anti-semitic atrocity: ‘Do all Australians have a responsibility to help keep our communities peaceful and safe?’ We got a 71% yes to that question; 32% of respondents agreed strongly with that proposition. Only 8% disagreed.

So I think there are some foundations there to work harder towards a coherent national security response that respects the differences in Australian society, but […] brings the community into the conversation and perhaps adapts our priorities as we go on that journey.

References

1. ^{^} new report (nsc.anu.edu.au)
2. ^{^} Professor Rory Medcalf (researchportalplus.anu.edu.au)