Two new federal polls have One Nation gaining on Labor

Two new federal polls by DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog have the combined primary vote for Labor and the Greens dropping as One Nation continues to surge. There’s no sign of a boost for the Coalition from Angus Taylor replacing Sussan Ley.

At the 2025 federal election^[1], the combined primary vote share for Labor and the Greens was 46.8%, while the combined share for the Coalition, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots was 40.1%. In the two polls below, the total right vote is 49% and the total left vote 41–42%.

A national DemosAU poll^[2] for Capital Brief, conducted February 16–20 from a sample of 1,551, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since a mid-January DemosAU poll^[3]), One Nation 28% (up four), the Coalition 21% (steady), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 10% (down two).

No two-party estimate was given, but seat projections had Labor winning 76–85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, still enough for a majority but down from 87–95 in January. One Nation was winning 43–54 seats, up from 29–38, the Coalition 9–20 (10–22 previously), the Greens an unchanged 0–2 and all Others 3–7 (6–11 previously).

Anthony Albanese’s net positive rating was down three points to -17, with 46% giving him a negative rating and 29% positive. Taylor’s initial net positive was -4 (28% negative, 24% positive), up 14 points on Ley. Pauline Hanson’s net positive improved four points to -1 (38% negative, 37% positive).

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese led with 37% (down two), followed by Hanson at 25% (down one) and Taylor at 19% (up three from Ley).

Cost of living was rated the most important issue by 45%, followed by housing at 18% and immigration at 13%. Respondents were asked which of Labor, the Greens, One Nation or the Coalition were best for various issues.

Combining One Nation and the Coalition against the combined Labor and Greens gives the right a 44–32 lead over the left on cost of living, a 41–32 lead on housing and a 53–26 lead on immigration.

Read more: Can One Nation turn its polling hype into seats in parliament? History shows it will struggle^[4]

Fox & Hedgehog poll: Labor down to 51–49 lead

A national Fox & Hedgehog poll^[5] for the News Corp papers, conducted February 17–19 from a sample of 1,625, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up one since an early January Fox & Hedgehog poll^[6]), One Nation 25% (up four), the Coalition 24% (down one), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 9% (down two).

In a “three party preferred”, where Greens and Other voters are asked which of Labor, One Nation or the Coalition they prefer, Labor had 44% (down two), One Nation 29% (up four) and the Coalition 27% (down two). Respondent preferences gave Labor just a 51–49 lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a three-point gain for One Nation.

Albanese’s net approval was an unchanged -15 (47% disapprove, 32% approve). Taylor’s initial net approval was +3 (26% approve, 23% disapprove) (Ley’s net approval was -13). Albanese led Taylor by 40–35 as preferred PM (39–31 vs Ley). Hanson’s net approval was up 12 points to +9 (44% approve, 35% disapprove).

On reducing the capital gains tax discount, 35% both supported and opposed. By 59–17, respondents supported an immigration ban from “high risk” areas. By 64–15, respondents did not think “ISIS brides” should be allowed to return to Australia.

Resolve poll on international relations

I previously covered the mid-February federal Resolve poll^[8] for Nine newspapers. In further questions^[9], Russian President Vladimir Putin had a net likeability with Australians of -60, United States President Donald Trump -41, Chinese President Xi Jinping -26, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu -20, United Kingdom PM Keir Starmer -5 and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky +22.

The US’s net likeability was -17, down 21 since October and 34 from two years ago. China’s was -24, the UK’s +41, Japan’s +53 and New Zealand’s +67.

Read more: The Coalition leads in Victorian DemosAU poll, with One Nation posting 21% support^[10]

On the greatest threat to Australia in the next few years, 31% said China (down 23 since January 2023), 17% the US, 5% Russia and 31% all equally.

By 62–11, respondents thought Taiwan was a sovereign nation rather than a region of China. On any conflict between China and Taiwan, 36% thought Australia should support Taiwan, 7% support China and 38% not take sides.

On the Ukraine-Russia war, 40% thought Australia should maintain its current support for Ukraine, 16% increase its support (down nine since March 2025) and 21% decrease or withdraw support for Ukraine (up seven).

Tasmanian federal EMRS poll

A Tasmanian federal EMRS poll^[11], conducted February 16–19 from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote, One Nation 24%, the Liberals 18%, the Greens 13%, independents 12% and others 2%. One Nation only received 6.0% at the 2025 federal election in Tasmania^[12].

Labor led the Liberals by 60–40 after preferences (63.3–36.7 at the last election), and they led One Nation by the same 60–40 margin. Figures for the five Tasmanian federal seats were given, based on samples of 200 per seat.

In Braddon, One Nation and Labor were tied 50–50, from primary votes of 34% One Nation, 31% Labor, 16% Liberals, 7% Greens and 10% independents. Labor was winning all other seats easily. Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 45–31 statewide.

Queensland DemosAU poll: LNP far ahead

A Queensland state DemosAU and Premier National poll^[13], conducted February 10–20 from a sample of 1,044, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34% of the primary vote (down three since the October DemosAU poll^[14]), Labor 28% (down one), One Nation 21% (up seven), the Greens 10% (down two) and all Others 7% (down one).

The LNP led Labor by 56–44 after preferences, a two-point gain for the LNP. All Queensland polls^[15] now have the LNP far ahead.

LNP Premier David Crisafulli had a net +16 approval, with 39% positive, 38% neutral and 23% negative. Labor leader Steven Miles was at net -10. Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 43–32 (44–32 previously). By 44–36, respondents thought Queensland was headed in the right direction (42–38 previously).

References

1. ^{^} 2025 federal election (www.abc.net.au)
2. ^{^} DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
3. ^{^} mid-January DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
4. ^{^} Can One Nation turn its polling hype into seats in parliament? History shows it will struggle (theconversation.com)
5. ^{^} national Fox & Hedgehog poll (drive.google.com)
6. ^{^} January Fox & Hedgehog poll (drive.google.com)
7. ^{^} Joel Carrett/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
8. ^{^} mid-February federal Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} further questions (www.theage.com.au)
10. ^{^} The Coalition leads in Victorian DemosAU poll, with One Nation posting 21% support (theconversation.com)
11. ^{^} Tasmanian federal EMRS poll (www.emrs.com.au)
12. ^{^} 2025 federal election in Tasmania (results.aec.gov.au)
13. ^{^} Queensland state DemosAU and Premier National poll (demosau.com)
14. ^{^} October DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
15. ^{^} Queensland polls (theconversation.com)