will disastrous Newspoll trigger Taylor challenge to Ley, despite Coalition patch-up?

Sussan Ley and David Littleproud on Sunday announced an 11th hour patch up of the federal Coalition that the Liberal leader hopes will hold off an early challenge from Angus Taylor.

But on Sunday night it was doubtful whether re-forming the Coalition would prevent Taylor, the opposition defence spokesman, moving this week, with some sources putting a challenge to Ley’s leadership at 50-50 probability.

Newspoll released Sunday night shows the Coalition parties’ primary vote dropping to 18%, with the Liberals on 15% and the Nationals on 3%, and Ley with a net satisfaction rating of minus 39, a deterioration of 11 points since the previous poll in January. One Nation has surged to 27%, up 5 points over the past three weeks.

Labor’s primary vote was 33%, one point up since January. On the latest figures Labor would improve its already huge majority if an election were held now. Anthony Albanese is 19 points ahead of Ley as preferred prime minister.

Before the poll was released, Liberal sources said it would be a significant factor in whether there was a challenge by Taylor this week.

Ley, who had to compromise in the negotiations with the Nationals, has undercut one of Taylor’s earlier potential grounds for a challenge – that she had been unable to put the Coalition back together. But if Taylor lets this week pass he might lose the momentum he has been building.

The numbers in the Liberal party room between Ley and Taylor are said to be very close at the moment, with some people still wavering.

The agreement followed prolonged toing and froing, with both leaders coming under strong pressure to do a deal to heal the rift, which lasted over a fortnight. Ley had threatened to name an all-Liberal frontbench before parliament resumes on Monday if the two parties did not reunite.

Sunday’s joint news conference in Canberra saw a strong performance from Ley. However the lack of rapport between the two leaders was evident in Littleproud’s body language. He hardly looked at Ley when she was speaking. It is well known that the two dislike each other, and Littleproud reportedly shouted at Ley in one conversation during the split.

A key part of the new Coalition deal is that all shadow ministers will in future sign an agreement to abide by shadow cabinet solidarity.

A shadow cabinet “decisions register” will be set up.

It will be codified that neither the National Party nor the Liberal Party can overturn decisions of the shadow cabinet. The primacy of the joint party room will be enshrined.

These last points are crucial. Nationals sources who are critical of Littleproud are claiming it means he has given away the autonomy of the Nationals party room.

The Coalition crisis started when three Nationals frontbenchers crossed the floor to oppose the government’s anti-hate legislation, following a Nationals party room decision. Ley sacked them for breaking shadow cabinet solidarity.

Ley gave ground to get the deal, after she had earlier demanded the three should be off the front bench for six months.

Under the deal the arrangements, and therefore the optics, will be messy for the rest of this month.

In a joint statement, Ley and Littleproud said:

• for a cumulative six-week period (from the time of the split) all Nationals (including senators) will have served outside shadow ministerial portfolios.

• each shadow minister will return to their previously-held roles on March 1, when the present acting shadow ministerial arrangements that were earlier announced will end.

• to ensure joint representation and accountability in decision-making during this interim period, the leader and deputy leader of the Nationals will attend meetings of the leadership group, shadow cabinet and shadow economic review committee.

Liberal sources said that in parliament on Monday the Coalition will again sit as an integrated block, unlike last week when the Nationals were on the crossbench.

Ley’s plan to announce an all-Liberal frontbench if there were no Coalition reunification was attractive to some Liberals who hoped for promotion. But more Liberals believed getting the Coalition together again had to be the top priority.

Ley told her joint news conference with Littleproud:“The overwhelming majority of my party room knows that the Coalition is stronger together.”

Littleproud directed many of his remarks to re-prosecuting the original circumstances around the break over the hate legislation.

“It was over a substantive issue. A matter of principle that we weren’t both afforded the time to be able to explore in a proper way. That the Albanese government tried to rush through laws so substantive around freedom of speech when the intent of both parties was to do the right thing, not just by the Jewish community but by the Australian people to make sure there wasn’t an overreach and we didn’t have the time nor the processes afforded to both parties to achieve that.

"This wasn’t about personalities, this was about principles.”