Labor maintains dominant lead in Redbridge poll despite expenses claims

Labor gained two points in a Redbridge national poll to take a 56–44 lead, despite the expenses claims occurring during the fieldwork period. Redbridge state polls have Victoria tied 50–50, while Labor has a large lead in NSW.

All polls in this article were taken before Sunday night’s terrorist attacks at Bondi Beach.

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll^[1] for The Financial Review, conducted December 5–12 from a sample of 1,012, gave Labor a 56–44 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the large-sample November Redbridge^[2] poll. Primary votes were 35% Labor (steady), 26% Coalition (steady), 17% One Nation (down one) 13% Greens (up three) and 9% for all Others (down two).

The fieldwork for this poll occurred when there were expenses claims in the news about some Labor politicians.

Ratings of various politicians are compared with the early November regular Redbridge poll^[3]. Anthony Albanese’s net favourability was up three points to +2 (39% favourable, 38% unfavourable). Sussan Ley’s net favourability was up one point to -20. Albanese led Ley by 41–12 as preferred PM (40–10 previously).

Former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce joined One Nation^[4] on December 8, giving One Nation its first seat in the House of Representatives since 1998. Joyce will run for the New South Wales Senate at the 2028 federal election.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net favourability slumped six points to -19 in this poll and Joyce’s net favourability was down four points to -27. Joyce’s defection hasn’t helped either his or Hanson’s numbers.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers was at 27–22 unfavourable, Energy Minister Chris Bowen was at 27–13 unfavourable and Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke at 23–12 unfavourable.

On six issue questions, One Nation maintained a lead on rate of immigration and the Greens maintained a lead on climate change. Labor led the Liberals on the other four issues.

Essential poll has Labor’s narrowest lead since election

A national Essential poll^[6], conducted December 3–7 from a sample of 1,030, gave Labor a 49–45 lead by respondent preferences including undecided (50–44 in late November). This is Labor’s narrowest lead in any poll since the May election.

Primary votes were 34% Labor (down two), 26% Coalition (down one), 17% One Nation (up two), 10% Greens (down one), 8% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down one). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 54–46.

A low vote for all Others (they got 15% at the election and were in double digits in other polls until this Redbridge) and a weak respondent preference flow to Labor are features of Essential’s polls.

Albanese’s net approval dropped six points to -2, with 45% disapproving and 43% approving. Ley’s net approval improved four points to -9.

On the year 2025, 40% thought it worse than expected^[7], 25% better than expected and 31% as expected. On whether they were worse or better off than three years ago, 42% said worse, 26% better and 32% about the same. On expectations for 2026, 33% said it would be better for Australia than 2025, 29% worse and 26% no difference.

By 57–22, respondents supported the social media ban on children under 16 that commenced last Wednesday (63–19 in September). On effectiveness, 52% thought it would be somewhat effective, 34% not effective and 14% effective.

In additional questions from the early December Resolve federal poll^[8] for Nine newspapers, by 65–19 respondents supported extending the federal power rebate^[9]. By 51–17, they supported the 5% home loan deposit scheme.

Victorian Redbridge poll tied 50–50

The Victorian election will be held in November 2026. A Redbridge and Accent Research poll^[10] for The Financial Review, conducted November 24 to December 8 from a sample of 1,021, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since a Redbridge October poll.

Primary votes were 40% Coalition (up three), 31% Labor (down one), 12% Greens and 17% for all Others. Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s performance was rated poor by 60–20, while new Liberal leader Jess Wilson was rated good by 25–22.

By 59–26, respondents thought the Allan Labor government did not have the right focus and priorities. But by 43–25, they did not think Wilson and the Coalition had done enough to deserve to win the next election.

Labor far ahead in NSW Redbridge poll

The New South Wales state election is in March 2027. A Redbridge and Accent Research poll^[11] for The Financial Review, conducted November 24 to December 8 from a sample of 1,293, gave Labor a 57–43 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since an unpublished June Redbridge poll.

Primary votes were 38% Labor, 30% Coalition, 10% Greens, 4% One Nation and 18% for all Others. One Nation’s vote is very low, and this poll probably asked for them only in seats they contested in 2023.

By 43–33, respondents thought the Chris Minns NSW Labor government has the right focus and priorities. By 45–20, they did not think new Liberal leader Kellie Sloane and the Coalition have done enough to deserve to win the next election.

Labor slides in Queensland Resolve poll

A Queensland state Resolve poll^[12] for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the federal November and December Resolve polls from a sample of 869, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 33% of the primary vote (steady since October), Labor 30% (down two), the Greens 11% (up one), One Nation 9% (steady), independents 8% (up one) and others 10% (up two).

LNP Premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability was down one point to +16, dropping from a peak of +20 in August. Labor leader Steven Miles’ net likeability surged seven points to +5. Crisafulli led Miles by just 35–34 as preferred premier (39–22 previously).

By 37–35, respondents wanted the state LNP government to ditch the net zero emissions by 2050 commitment. By 50–18, they wanted coal-fired power stations used until the end of their lives instead of replacing them early with renewables or gas.

References

1. ^{^} Redbridge and Accent Research poll (www.afr.com)
2. ^{^} large-sample November Redbridge (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} early November regular Redbridge poll (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} Barnaby Joyce joined One Nation (www.abc.net.au)
5. ^{^} AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
6. ^{^} Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
7. ^{^} thought it worse than expected (essentialreport.com.au)
8. ^{^} early December Resolve federal poll (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} extending the federal power rebate (www.theage.com.au)
10. ^{^} Redbridge and Accent Research poll (www.afr.com)
11. ^{^} Redbridge and Accent Research poll (www.afr.com)
12. ^{^} Queensland state Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)