61% of Australians would struggle with an expense of a few thousand dollars: new poll
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A new federal Resolve poll[1] has found 61% of respondents would struggle to afford an expense of a few thousand dollars, compared to just 24% who said they would not. The 37-point margin is the highest since Resolve began asking this question in February 2023.
When this question was last asked in December 2024, the margin was 50–36%.
On who to blame for rising living costs, 42% blamed the federal government, 16% global factors, 11% state governments, 7% the Reserve Bank and 7% businesses. In the next six months, 42% thought the economic outlook would get worse, 20% said it would improve and 29% said it would stay the same.
The poll for Nine newspapers – conducted between November 4-8 from a sample of 1,804 people – also gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition by respondent preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the October Resolve poll.
Primary votes were 33% Labor (down one), 29% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (up one), 12% One Nation (steady), 7% independents (down two) and 6% others (down one).
By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 54.5–45.5%, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
Despite Labor’s drop on voting intentions, Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved six points[2] to net zero, with 44% both giving him a good and poor rating.
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s net approval was down two points to -7. Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 39–25% (40–23% previously).
Labor led the Liberals on economic management[3] by 31–29% (29–28% in October). But on keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 28–27%, reversing a 28–24% Labor lead in October.
When asked their most important issue, 42% of respondents said cost of living, with no other issue reaching double digits.
This poll was taken after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported[4] on October 29 that inflation in the September quarter rose 1.3%, its highest quarterly increase since March 2023.
There has also been a surge in the popularity[5] of right-wing to far-right politicians since December 2024.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net likeability increased 21 points to +8, National MP Barnaby Joyce’s net likeability increased 14 points to -8 and Liberal MP Andrew Hastie’s net likeability increased four points to +8.
Unlike the late October Newspoll[6], this new poll did not show a surge for One Nation. Ley’s net approval in this poll is far better than in Newspoll (-7 vs -33).
Labor still far ahead in NSW Resolve poll
A NSW state Resolve poll[7] for The Sydney Morning Herald – conducted with the federal October and November Resolve polls from a sample of more than 1,000 people – gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down one since September), the Coalition 28% (steady), the Greens 10% (steady), independents 15% (up four) and others 11% (down one).
Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls, but primary votes suggest little change from September’s estimate[8] of 59–41% to Labor. The next NSW election will be held in March 2027.
Despite Labor’s continued dominance on voting intentions, Labor Premier Chris Minns slumped to his lowest preferred premier lead this term over Liberal leader Mark Speakman. Minns led by 31–19%, down from 37–16% in September.
Minns’ net likeability was up one point to +14, and has remained roughly steady since recovering from a slump to +10 in December 2024.
Speakman’s net likeability was up two points to +3, continuing a rebound from a low of -3 in April.
Coalition retains narrow lead in Victorian DemosAU poll
A Victorian DemosAU state poll[9] – conducted between October 21–27 from a sample of 1,016 people – gave the Coalition a 51–49% lead, unchanged from an early September DemosAU poll[10].
Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one), 26% Labor (steady), 15% Greens (steady) and 22% for all Others (up one).
Opposition Leader Brad Battin led Labor Premier Jacinta Allan as preferred premier by 40–32% (37–32% previously). The Victorian election will be held in November 2026.
Upper house voting intentions were 30% Coalition, 21% Labor, 14% Greens, 11% One Nation, 5% Family First, 4% Libertarian and 3% Animal Justice. The combined vote for the Coalition and Labor is an unrealistic[11] 12 points lower in the upper house than in the lower house.
All 40 of Victoria’s upper house seats will be elected in eight five-member electorates using proportional representation with preferences.
Liberals increase lead in Tasmanian DemosAU poll
A Tasmanian DemosAU state poll[12] – conducted between October 16–27 from a sample of 1,021 people – gave the Liberals 41% of the vote (39.9% at the July election), Labor 24% (25.9%), the Greens 15% (14.4%), independents 14% (15.3%), the Shooters 2% (2.9%) and others 4%.
Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two-party estimate is not applicable. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff led Labor leader Josh Willie by 46–34% as preferred premier.
Respondents were asked if they had positive, neutral or negative views of various Tasmanian politicians.
Rockliff was at net +5, but Deputy Premier Guy Barnett was at net -14 and Treasurer Eric Abetz at net -19.
Willie was at net -5, with former Labor leader Dean Winter much worse at net -33. Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff was at net -20.
Queensland byelection on November 29
A byelection for the Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook[13] will occur on November 29 after the Katter’s Australian Party MP, Nick Dametto, resigned to run for mayor of Townsville.
At the 2024 election, Dametto defeated the Liberal National Party’s Annette Swaine by 63.2–36.8%, from primary votes of 46.4% KAP, 28.2% LNP, 14.0% Labor, 4.6% One Nation, 3.6% Legalise Cannabis and 3.2% Greens.
The KAP, LNP and Labor have all announced candidates for the byelection, with others likely to follow.
US government shutdown set to end
For most legislation to pass the United States Senate, 60 votes out of the 100 senators are needed to end a “filibuster[14]”. Republicans control the Senate by 53–47.
On Sunday, eight Democrats joined with nearly all Republicans[15] to pass a bill reopening the US government by exactly the required 60–40 majority.
The House of Representatives still needs to approve the bill, which should happen in the coming days. This will end the longest US government shutdown.
US President Donald Trump’s ratings have slumped[16] to a low this term following big wins by the Democrats in the New Jersey and Virginia state elections. This vote will widely be seen as Senate Democrats unnecessarily caving to Trump.
References
- ^ new federal Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ improved six points (theconversation.com)
- ^ economic management (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ Australian Bureau of Statistics reported (www.abs.gov.au)
- ^ surge in the popularity (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ late October Newspoll (theconversation.com)
- ^ NSW state Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ September’s estimate (theconversation.com)
- ^ Victorian DemosAU state poll (demosau.com)
- ^ early September DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
- ^ is an unrealistic (theconversation.com)
- ^ Tasmanian DemosAU state poll (demosau.com)
- ^ Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ filibuster (www.senate.gov)
- ^ eight Democrats joined with nearly all Republicans (www.theguardian.com)
- ^ US President Donald Trump’s ratings have slumped (theconversation.com)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
