Who will win the 2025 Women’s Rugby World Cup? We ran 10,000 simulations to rank the contenders
- Written by Niven Winchester, Professor of Economics, Auckland University of Technology
Women’s rugby is growing rapidly worldwide, and now accounts for 25% of the total global playing base[1]. US women’s rugby star Ilona Maher is the most followed rugby player in the world[2], ahead of men’s stars Siya Kolisi and Antoine Dupont.
So there’s more interest than ever in the tenth Women’s Rugby World Cup[3], which kicks off in England on August 23. As with any big sports event, the pundits will be picking their winners based on recent win-loss records and overall performance trends – key factors that underpin official rankings.
Rugby Vision[4], a suite of statistical models I developed to predict outcomes[5] for major competitions, uses similar information but with some important differences. Notably, it is less sensitive to the outcome of any single game.
The model uses three main components: a rating system for international teams; estimation of expected outcomes for each World Cup game using those ratings; and 10,000 simulations of the tournament to account for uncertainty around expected outcomes.
Rugby Vision has outperformed betting markets and other algorithms[6] in recent men’s Rugby World Cups. I should add, though, it is not designed to support sports betting, but rather to illustrate how statistical modelling compares with real-world results.
Picking a winner
The probability of each team advancing to each stage of the tournament is shown in the table below. England, which has dominated women’s rugby in recent years and has home advantage, is overwhelming favourite with a 70.3% chance of winning the tournament.
Niven Winchester, CC BY-NC-ND[10]
While England enters the tournament as clear favourite, rugby has never been short of surprises. Past Rugby World Cups have seen giants fall and underdogs rise. The simulations give us a guide, but they are not a crystal ball.
What is certain is that the women’s game is in excellent shape – growing fast, drawing crowds and showcasing world-class talent. This tournament is bound to be a spectacle.
The author acknowledges the assistance of Soren Winchester, whose data collection contributed to the forecasts included in this article.
References^ 25% of the total global playing base (passport.world.rugby)^ most followed rugby player in the world (www.theguardian.com)^ Women’s Rugby World Cup (www.rugbyworldcup.com)^ Rugby Vision (www.rugbyvision.com)^ predict outcomes (theconversation.com)^ outperformed betting markets and other algorithms (significancemagazine.com)^ CC BY-NC-ND (creativecommons.org)^ World Rugby Rankings (www.world.rugby)^ CC BY-NC-ND (creativecommons.org)^ CC BY-NC-ND (creativecommons.org)Authors: Niven Winchester, Professor of Economics, Auckland University of Technology
