With the UK and France moving toward recognising Palestine, will Australia now follow suit?

One of the smallest and most exclusive clubs in the world belongs to states. The US Department of State^[1] puts the number of independent recognised states at 197, while others count 200.

The United Nations, meanwhile, has 193 member states^[2]. This number has grown rapidly^[3] since the second world war, from the 51 original members, to 99 by 1960, and then 189 by 2000.

But UN membership is not determinative of statehood. Switzerland famously held out on joining the UN until 2002, due to concerns over compromising its neutrality.

States have come and gone in recent decades. Some, like Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, have splintered into numerous new independent states. Nearly all have international recognition, but Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008, has only been recognised by just over half of UN members^[4].

Becoming a recognised state is, therefore, dynamic and involves complicated political, legal and diplomatic processes. All of these are currently at play in the case of recognising Palestine.

Major powers signal a shift

Approximately 147 states^[5] currently recognise the state of Palestine. The exceptions include the United States and many of its allies, such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.

However, the past week has seen a significant shift among these holdouts. First, France announced^[6] it would recognise Palestine at the UN General Assembly meetings in September.

Then, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer took a major step^[7] by saying his country would do the same unless Israel agrees to a number of conditions.

Highlighting how political the act of recognition is, these conditions included:

• a permanent ceasefire with Hamas
• allowing aid to flow into Gaza
• demonstrating a commitment to the two-state solution^[8]
• guaranteeing the West Bank will not be annexed, a stated aspiration^[9] of some Israeli politicians.

With the UK’s step, other nations may now follow suit, including Australia, which has inched closer to formal recognition in recent weeks.

Read more: UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here's what that would mean^[10]

Criteria for recognition

The 1933 Montevideo Convention on Rights and Duties of States^[11] identifies four key legal criteria for a new state to be recognised:

• defined boundaries
• a permanent population
• a government, and
• the capacity to enter into international relations.

Those criteria have been interpreted and applied flexibly. For example, there has been debate about how governments of newly formed states come to power: should those resulting from military might have the same legitimacy as those established by democratic processes?

Read more: Palestine has been recognised by more than 140 nations – but not yet Australia. So, what exactly defines a 'state'?^[12]

Over the past week, a clearer picture has emerged as to the additional conditions^[13] Australia is setting for the recognition of Palestine.

These include the release of the remaining Israeli hostages captured in Hamas’ attack in October 2023, the demilitarisation of Hamas, and the reform of the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs the West Bank.

Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since elections in 2006, is central to two of these requirements. While the hostages may eventually be released, the demilitarisation of Hamas appears unlikely in the short term.

In addition, how the Palestinian Authority could be reformed to Australia’s satisfaction is very unclear. Elections would certainly be a step forward. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas^[14] has indicated he is prepared to hold presidential and parliamentary elections by the end of 2025, yet it is difficult to see free and fair elections being held in Gaza while it is under Israeli assault.

With these preconditions, Australia has set a high bar for recognition. It seems unlikely all would be met by the time the UN General Assembly meets in September.

What would Australian recognition mean?

History shows that once Australia bestows recognition on a state, it will not be revoked. Irrespective of how distasteful a foreign government or regime may be, including how a leader or party comes to power, Australia will continue to recognise the existence of the state.

The multiple changes in government in Afghanistan^[15] since 2001 and the eventual return to power of the Taliban in 2021 is a case in point. The military coup^[16] that overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government in 2021 is another.

While diplomatic relations have proven challenging with these new governing regimes, Australia continues to recognise the existence of these states.

The domestic and international momentum suggests that Australian recognition of Palestine is now inevitable. When it occurs there will be immediate consequences. Recognition isn’t just symbolic – it has real, practical effects.

First, Palestine and Australia would establish formal diplomatic relations. The existing Palestinian Authority representative office in Canberra would become the country’s official embassy. Australian aid and assistance would also be able to flow directly to Palestine without having to pass through UN agencies. This would be crucial for the eventual rebuilding of Gaza.

In short, Palestine will move out of the shadows and be treated as any other state that Australia has recognised and has relations with.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says he does not want Australian recognition of Palestine to be a “gesture^[17]”. It is unclear what is meant by this. Legally and politically, that could never be the case.

Australia’s position is probably more one of caution. Albanese wants to ensure recognition from Canberra is meaningful and Australia is able to fully support an independent Palestine freed from Israeli military occupation.

References

1. ^{^} US Department of State (www.state.gov)
2. ^{^} member states (www.un.org)
3. ^{^} grown rapidly (www.un.org)
4. ^{^} just over half of UN members (en.wikipedia.org)
5. ^{^} 147 states (www.euronews.com)
6. ^{^} France announced (www.euronews.com)
7. ^{^} took a major step (www.theguardian.com)
8. ^{^} two-state solution (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} stated aspiration (www.aljazeera.com)
10. ^{^} UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here's what that would mean (theconversation.com)
11. ^{^} Montevideo Convention on Rights and Duties of States (www.un-ilibrary.org)
12. ^{^} Palestine has been recognised by more than 140 nations – but not yet Australia. So, what exactly defines a 'state'? (theconversation.com)
13. ^{^} additional conditions (www.pm.gov.au)
14. ^{^} Mahmoud Abbas (www.jpost.com)
15. ^{^} Afghanistan (www.dfat.gov.au)
16. ^{^} military coup (www.dfat.gov.au)
17. ^{^} gesture (www.pm.gov.au)