2 polls have Tasmania headed for another hung parliament, but disagree on which party is ahead

Two Tasmanian state polls imply another hung parliament at the July 19 election under Tasmania’s proportional system. In one of these polls, Labor leads the Liberals, while in the other the Liberals lead.

A Tasmanian snap state election will be held on July 19, just 16 months after the previous election in March 2024. This election is being held owing to a successful early June no-confidence vote^[1] in Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff.

Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system^[2] to elect its lower house. There are five electorates corresponding to Tasmania’s five federal seats, and each electorate returns seven members, for a total of 35 lower house MPs.

Under this system, a quota for election is one-eighth of the vote or 12.5%, but half of this (6.2%) is usually enough to give a reasonable chance of election. There’s no above the line section like for the federal Senate. Instead, people vote for candidates not parties, with at least seven preferences required for a formal vote.

Robson rotation means that candidates for each party are randomised across ballot papers for that electorate, so that on some ballot papers a candidate will appear at the top of their party’s ticket and on others at the bottom.

This means parties can’t control the ordering of their candidates. Independents can be listed in single-candidate columns.

At the last election, the Liberals won 14 of the 35 seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) three and independents three. Two of the three JLN MPs were later expelled from their party, but remained in parliament as independents.

Candidate nominations were declared last Friday. There are 31 candidates in Bass^[3], 38 in Braddon, 26 in Clark, 31 in Franklin and 35 in Lyons, for a total of 161 candidates, or 4.6 candidates per vacancy.

The JLN isn’t running candidates, but the Nationals are running in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, and they include two former JLN MPs. Previous Tasmanian attempts by the Nationals have been failures, with their last effort in 2014^[4] earning them just 0.8% of the statewide vote.

YouGov and DemosAU polls

A Tasmanian YouGov poll^[5], conducted June 12–24 from a sample of 1,287, gave Labor 34% of the vote, the Liberals 31%, the Greens 13%, independents 18% and others 4%. Despite trailing on voting intentions, Rockliff led Labor’s Dean Winter by 43–36 as preferred premier.

Respondents were asked to select the three most important items they wanted their candidate to agree with. Investing more in health was selected by 52%, building more public housing by 45% and reducing state debt by taxing those who can afford to pay by 41%.

Opposing privatisation and asset sales was selected by 34%, while supporting privatisation was selected by 18%. Being anti-Macquarie AFL stadium was selected by 33%, while being pro-stadium was selected by 22%. When asked specifically about privatisation, voters were opposed by 47–36.

Analyst Kevin Bonham reported^[6] a DemosAU poll, conducted June 19–26 from a sample of 4,289, gave the Liberals 34% of the vote, Labor 27.3%, the Greens 15.1% and independents 19.3%, leaving 4.7% presumably for others. This poll was originally reported in The Advocate, and was taken for an “unnamed peak body”.

Bonham thinks it is likely that the independent vote in both these polls is overstated. These polls were both conducted before nominations were declared.

If the DemosAU poll is correct, the Liberals would be likely to win more seats than Labor, while Labor would be likely to win more seats if the YouGov poll is right. But in both cases, the winning party would be well short of the 18 seats needed for a single-party majority.

From 2010 to 2014, Labor governed in coalition with the Greens, and its heavy loss at the 2014 election^[7] was widely blamed on this coalition. Labor has tried to distance itself from the Greens since. In the last parliament, Labor may have been able to form government with the Greens’ assistance, but they refused to attempt to form one.

If the YouGov poll is right, Labor may be able to form government with independents and not require the Greens. If the DemosAU poll is right, the result of this election is likely to be similar to the 2024 result, and Labor would need the Greens and some independents to form government.

Federal Morgan poll: Labor far ahead

A national Morgan poll^[8], conducted June 23–29 from a sample of 1,522, gave federal Labor a 57.5–42.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the June 2–22 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 36.5% Labor (down one), 30.5% Coalition (down 0.5), 12% Greens (steady), 8.5% One Nation (up 2.5) and 12.5% for all Others (down one). Using 2025 election preference flows, Labor’s lead was reduced to 56.5–43.5.

References

1. ^{^} early June no-confidence vote (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} Hare-Clark system (www.abc.net.au)
3. ^{^} 31 candidates in Bass (www.abc.net.au)
4. ^{^} last effort in 2014 (en.wikipedia.org)
5. ^{^} YouGov poll (au.yougov.com)
6. ^{^} Kevin Bonham reported (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
7. ^{^} 2014 election (en.wikipedia.org)
8. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)