Preference deals can decide the outcome of a seat in an election – but not always
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Every election cycle the media becomes infatuated, even if temporarily, with preference deals between parties. The 2025 election is no exception, with many media reports about preference “deals” being made.
However, it is important to remember that voters are not required to follow the how to vote cards of the parties they vote for, and only major party voters have a significant percentage who follow the cards.
Other than the Greens and One Nation, minor parties lack resources to put people at every polling place who will give voters how to vote cards. As a result, how to vote follow rates for most minor parties are low.
At the 2022 Victorian state election, for example, seven seats had preferences for all voters data entered into a computer system. The Poll Bludger said Sunday[1] that in these seven seats, about 30% of Labor voters exactly followed their party’s how to vote card.
In seats where the Liberals were making an effort by staffing polling places, over 50% of their voters followed the card. But in Preston, a Labor vs Greens contest, only 29% of Liberals followed the card.
The major parties will usually be the final two candidates in a seat, so their preferences are not distributed.
Despite all this, there may be political consequences of preference recommendations.
At this election, Labor is recommending preferences to the Greens ahead of the Coalition in all seats except in the Victorian Labor-held seat of Macnamara[2] (an “open” ticket without a recommendation between the Greens and Liberals owing to concerns about the Jewish vote in that seat).
The Coalition is recommending preferences[3] to One Nation ahead of anyone else in 139 of the 147 seats One Nation is contesting.
Recommending preferences to the Greens may make Labor seem too left-wing to some voters, and recommending preferences to One Nation may make the Coalition seem too right-wing and pro-Trump. One Nation will recommend preferences to the Coalition ahead of Labor in all seats it contests, the same recommendation they used in 2022.
The Poll Bludger said the Greens will be recommending preferences to Labor in all seats at this election. Occasionally, the Greens issue open tickets. The difference is worth about 5% of the Greens vote, so if the Greens had 10% in a seat, Labor’s two-party vote would be 0.5 points higher with a Greens recommendation to preference Labor than otherwise.
Trumpet of Patriots will put the incumbent party last in seats they contest. The Poll Bludger said Clive Palmer’s previous United Australia Party did this in 2022. But in 2022, Labor had a higher share of UAP preferences in seats it held than in Coalition-held seats, the opposite of what would be expected if these recommendations had made a difference.
Trumpet of Patriots is only getting 1% or 2% in current national polls, so their how to vote preference recommendations are not worth worrying about.
In 2022, Greens preferences[4] (that is, voters who put the Greens as 1 on their House of Representatives ballot) went to Labor over the Coalition by 86–14. One Nation preferences went to the Coalition over Labor by 64–36. These figures are national, and use the Labor vs Coalition two-party count in seats where one major party missed the final two.
Both the Greens and One Nation are using the same preference recommendations between Labor and the Coalition as in 2022, so their voters’ preferences won’t change because of recommendations.
The Liberals are recommending preferences to teal independent Kate Hullett in the Western Australian Labor-held seat of Fremantle, after they put her behind Labor in the WA state seat of Fremantle at the March 8 state election. This will increase Hullett’s chance of defeating Labor.
If the final two in Macnamara are the Greens and the Liberals, The Poll Bludger said Labor’s decision to issue an open ticket will give the Liberals about 2% of the 10% swing they would need to gain Macnamara.
The Liberals will recommend preferences to Labor in the Tasmanian Labor-held seat of Franklin ahead of an anti-salmon farming independent. They will also recommend preferences to Labor ahead of Muslim Vote-backed independents in the NSW Labor-held seats of Watson and Blaxland. These recommendations will make it difficult for any of these three independents.
References
- ^ Poll Bludger said Sunday (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ Macnamara (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ recommending preferences (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Greens preferences (results.aec.gov.au)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
