Labor regains poll lead as election called for May 3

After weeks of speculation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today called the 2025 federal election for May 3. This will be an election for all 150 House of Representatives seats and 40 of the 76 senators (a normal House and half-Senate election).

At the May 2022 election^[1], Labor won 77 of the then 151 House seats, to 58 for the Coalition, four for the Greens, ten for independents and two for others. Labor gained Aston^[2] from the Liberals in April 2023, so they currently hold 78 seats, a majority of five by the UK method.

Since the last election, there have been federal redistributions in Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia. Victoria and NSW both lost a seat while WA gained a seat, reducing the House to 150 seats, with an unchanged 76 needed for a majority. The Poll Bludger’s election guide^[3] has 77 notional Labor seats, 58 Coalition and 15 for all Others.

To win a majority in its own right, the Coalition needs to gain at least 18 seats. Assuming no change in the crossbench, the Coalition needs to gain at least ten seats from Labor to hold more seats than Labor.

Nationally, Labor won the 2022 election in two-party preferred terms^[4] by a 52.1–47.9 margin over the Coalition. After the election, Labor and Albanese had a long honeymoon that extended well into 2023, and included gaining Aston at a byelection.

The aftermath of the October 2023 Voice referendum defeat was bad for Labor, and they struggled in the polls during 2024 owing to rising concerns about inflation. In late 2024, the Coalition gained a narrow poll lead, which they held in analyst Kevin Bonham’s aggregate^[5] until early March.

Labor has now recovered the poll lead. It is ahead by 51.1–48.9 using 2022 election preference flows, and by 50.5–49.5 adjusting for presumed stronger One Nation preference flows to the Coalition. On these figures, Labor would be likely to win more seats than the Coalition and form government.

The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack^[6] is not as good for Labor, putting them in a 50.0–50.0 tie with the Coalition, representing a 2.1% swing to the Coalition since the last election.

By state, Labor leads by 50.1–49.9 in NSW, a 1.3% swing to the Coalition. Labor leads by 50.1–49.9 in Victoria, a 4.7% swing to the Coalition. The Coalition leads by an unchanged 54.0–46.0 in Queensland. In WA, Labor leads by 55.1–44.9, a 0.1% swing to Labor. In South Australia, Labor leads by 52.1–47.9, a 1.9% swing to the Coalition.

The big swing to the Coalition in Victoria is probably due to the unpopularity of the state Labor government. See also Newspoll aggregate data and a DemosAU Victorian federal poll below.

The only new national poll added since my last article on Monday^[7] was Morgan’s weekly poll. All polls presented here were taken before Tuesday’s budget. I have extended the x-axis on the poll graph below to show the election date.

Labor holds solid lead in Morgan despite Coalition gain

A national Morgan poll^[8], conducted March 17–23 from a sample of 1,683, gave Labor a 53–47 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the March 10–16 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 33.5% Labor (up one), 12.5% Greens (down one), 4% One Nation (down one), 10% independents (down 0.5) and 4.5% others (steady). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

By 52.5–32.5, respondents thought the country was going in the wrong direction (50.5–35 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index^[9] was up 0.4 points to 84.2.

Newspoll aggregate data

The Australian on March 23 released aggregate data for the three federal Newspolls conducted from late January to early March, from a combined sample of 3,757. The Poll Bludger said^[10] that in NSW there was a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the December quarter Newspoll aggregate.

In Victoria, Labor led by 51–49, a one-point gain for Labor. In Queensland, the Coalition led by 57–43, a four-point gain for the Coalition. In WA, Labor led by an unchanged 54–46. In SA, there was a 50–50 tie, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack data shows^[11] Labor had a 52–48 lead with university-educated people, a one-point gain for Labor. Among those with a TAFE/technical education, the Coalition led by 52–48, a three-point gain for the Coalition. Among those without any tertiary education, the Coalition led by 52–48, a one-point gain for Labor.

Victorian DemosAU federal and state poll

A Victorian DemosAU poll^[12], conducted March 17–21 from a sample of 1,006, gave federal Labor a 51–49 lead (54.8–45.2 to Labor in Victoria at the 2022 federal election). Primary votes were 34% Coalition, 29% Labor, 15% Greens, 8% One Nation and 14% for all Others.

Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 40–37. By 55–30, voters did not believe Australia is headed in the right direction.

In the state poll, the Coalition led by 52–48 (55.0–45.0 to Labor at the 2022 Victorian state election). Primary votes were 39% Coalition, 25% Labor, 15% Greens and 21% for all Others.

Liberal Brad Battin led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan as preferred premier by 43–30. By 60–25, voters did not believe Victoria is headed in the right direction.

Seat poll of Brisbane

Seat polls are unreliable. The Poll Bludger reported^[13] on March 25 that a uComms poll of Greens-held Brisbane for Liberals against Nuclear, conducted March 20 from a sample of 1,184, gave the Liberal National Party 31.2% of the primary vote, the Greens 24.2% and Labor 23.2%. The LNP would lose on preferences to either Labor or the Greens.

Canadian election to be held on April 28

On March 23, new Canadian PM Mark Carney called the Canadian federal election for April 28, six months early. Carney’s centre-left governing Liberals were narrowly leading the Conservatives after being more than 20 points behind in early January. I covered this for The Poll Bludger^[14] on March 24.

References

1. ^{^} May 2022 election (results.aec.gov.au)
2. ^{^} Labor gained Aston (www.abc.net.au)
3. ^{^} Poll Bludger’s election guide (www.pollbludger.net)
4. ^{^} two-party preferred terms (results.aec.gov.au)
5. ^{^} analyst Kevin Bonham’s aggregate (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
6. ^{^} BludgerTrack (www.pollbludger.net)
7. ^{^} last article on Monday (theconversation.com)
8. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
9. ^{^} consumer confidence index (www.roymorgan.com)
10. ^{^} The Poll Bludger said (www.pollbludger.net)
11. ^{^} BludgerTrack data shows (www.pollbludger.net)
12. ^{^} Victorian DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
13. ^{^} Poll Bludger reported (www.pollbludger.net)
14. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)