Hispanics and young men swung big to Trump
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Republican Donald Trump won the United States presidential election[1] by 312 electoral votes to 226 for Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump carried the seven key states of Georgia (16 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), Nevada (six), Wisconsin (ten), Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19).
Arizona and Nevada have not yet been called for Trump, but he will win them both. Joe Biden had defeated Trump[2] by 306 electoral votes to 232 in 2020. At this election, Trump gained Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. He won all the states he won in 2016 against Hillary Clinton[3], plus Nevada.
Analyst Nate Silver’s final forecast[4] had given Trump a 20% chance to win all seven key states. The pre-election polls did not have to be very wrong for Trump to do this.
Trump leads in the national popular vote by 50.7–47.7. When The New York Times Needle[5] was turned off early Wednesday morning US time, Trump was forecast to win the popular vote by 1.5%. There are many more votes left in Democratic strongholds like California.
This will be the first time a Republican has won the popular vote since 2004. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote against Trump by 51.3–46.8.
The New York Times said 90% of counties with nearly complete results[6] as of Wednesday morning had swung to Trump since 2020. The swing was greatest in counties with over 25% Hispanics, with a shift since 2020 of 9.5 points towards Trump. There were similar swings to Trump in urban and suburban counties.
New York City has five boroughs. Silver said whites[7] have just 9% of the population in the Bronx and 24% in Queens, with Hispanics having a plurality of the population in both boroughs.
In the 2012 presidential election, Republican Mitt Romney won just 8% of the vote against Democrat Barack Obama in the Bronx and 20% in Queens. There was virtually no swing to Trump in 2016 from Romney, but he has had big swings in his favour in the following two elections. Trump won 27% in the Bronx and 38% in Queens on Tuesday.
I wrote on Wednesday about a huge shift since 2016 in Trump’s favour in Florida’s Miami-Dade county[8], which is heavily Hispanic. Democrats can’t rely on the Hispanic vote anymore.
The Wall Street Journal said[9] that according to exit polls, Trump won men aged 18–29 by 55–42. In 2020, Biden won this demographic by 56–41.
As no county’s population is of young men only, county-level data cannot be used to extrapolate how young men voted, and exit polls are flawed. But if this huge swing to Trump among young men is true, it probably reflects a backlash against feminism.
Congressional elections
Republicans have won the Senate[10] by 52–45 over Democrats (including allied independents), gaining three states that Trump won easily: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. However, Democrats have won or are leading in four of the five presidential key states that Trump won that also held Senate contests (Pennsylvania is the exception).
If the contests in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania go to the current leader, Republicans will win a 53–47 Senate majority. If Democrats have a very good 2026 midterm election, they may regain Senate control. Republicans will be defending[11] 21 of the 34 seats up for election in 2026.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans lead Democrats[12] by 210 seats to 198 with 218 needed for a majority. If uncalled races are assigned to current leaders, Republicans currently lead by 224–211. However, some seats still have many votes left to count, and Democrats will hope to reverse some Republican leads.
Australian Essential poll gave Harris a 41–33 lead over Trump
In an Australian federal Essential poll[13] that was conducted before the US election (October 30 to November 3) from a sample of 1,131, Harris led Trump by 41–33. This contrasts with a Resolve poll in early October[14] that gave Harris a 52–21 lead. By 43–29, respondents thought a Trump presidency would be bad for Australia.
On Australian voting intentions[15], the Coalition remained ahead by 49–47 including undecided (48–46 in late October). This was despite a primary vote movement to Labor, who were up three to 31%, with the Coalition down one to 34%, the Greens steady on 12%, One Nation up two to 9%, the UAP steady at 2%, all Others down one to 8% and undecided down one to 5%.
On abortion, 41% thought it should be legal in all cases, 38% legal in most cases, 14% illegal in most cases and 7% illegal in all cases. At least 58% thought politicians should not accept access to various special events and benefits.
Interest in the Melbourne Cup horse race has recovered since last year. Now 16% (up five since November 2023) say they have high interest, 30% moderate interest (up six), 26% little interest (down one) and 26% no interest (down nine). By 52–48, respondents said they would not bet on the Cup (61–39 last year).
Morgan poll: Labor just ahead
A national Morgan poll[16], conducted October 21–27 from a sample of 1,687, gave Labor a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the October 14–20 Morgan poll that appeared to be a pro-Labor outlier.
Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up one), 30% Labor (down two), 14% Greens (up 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (steady), 9% independents (steady) and 4% others (up 0.5).
The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by 51.5–48.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition.
References
- ^ United States presidential election (edition.cnn.com)
- ^ had defeated Trump (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ 2016 against Hillary Clinton (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ Nate Silver’s final forecast (www.natesilver.net)
- ^ New York Times Needle (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ counties with nearly complete results (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Silver said whites (www.natesilver.net)
- ^ Trump’s favour in Florida’s Miami-Dade county (theconversation.com)
- ^ Wall Street Journal said (www.wsj.com)
- ^ have won the Senate (edition.cnn.com)
- ^ Republicans will be defending (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ Republicans lead Democrats (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ Resolve poll in early October (theconversation.com)
- ^ Australian voting intentions (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
