Trump’s ratings slide further, but gerrymanders will help Republicans at midterm elections

US President Donald Trump’s ratings have slid further to a new record low. But two recent court decisions will assist Republicans in using gerrymandering to avoid losing their majority in the House of Representatives.

In Australia, a former crossbench senator has defected to Labor. There are updated results from recent electoral events.

In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate^[1] of US national polls, Trump’s net approval has dropped 1.4 points since my April 29 article^[2] to a record low this term of -19.6, with 58.1% disapproving and 38.5% approving.

Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Joe Biden the closest at -12.1.

On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -11.9 on immigration, -19.4 on trade, -24.5 on the economy and -39.9 on inflation. Since April 29, Trump’s net approval on the economy and inflation have improved two points, while on immigration he has slipped three points.

Despite the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index has surged^[3] 18.0% since March 30, hitting a new record high in last night’s session, 8.0% above the level it was at in the week before the Iran war began.

While consumers have been hurt by high fuel prices, the stockmarket has surged owing to the AI boom.

Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war^[4]. Net support has dropped 3.4 points since April 29 to a record low -19.3, with 56.7% opposed to the Iran war while 37.4% support it.

Court decisions help Republicans to gerrymander House seats

In the United States, state legislatures usually set the boundaries for federal House seats. If Democrats or Republicans control the governor and both chambers of a state’s legislature, they can usually enact partisan gerrymanders. Districts must have roughly equal population, but can be drawn to favour Democrats or Republicans.

Two recent court decisions have helped Republicans. On April 30, the US Supreme Court^[5], which has a 6–3 right majority, issued a ruling that will allow southern states to axe their Black majority seats. These seats were Democratic strongholds in otherwise very Republican states.

On May 8 the Virginia Supreme Court rejected^[6] a 10–1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats. This gerrymander had passed at an April 21 Virginia referendum^[7] by a 51.7–48.3 margin. Had it been upheld, Democrats would have gained four seats from Virginia.

Since the US Supreme Court ruling, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina have all moved towards axing their Black seats. Democrats could retaliate by diluting their Black seats in states they control, as explained by Silver^[8], but there isn’t enough time before the November midterm elections.

New York Times analyst Nate Cohn^[9] said the net effect of the two court decisions will give Republicans a 3.9-point advantage in the House, up from 1.4 points before and 0.3 points on the 2024 House map. This means Democrats need to win the national House popular vote by at least four points to have a good chance to win a House majority.

At November midterm elections, all of the House and one-third of the Senate will be up for election. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot polls^[10], Democrats currently lead Republicans by 48.2–41.9, a 6.3-point margin. Democrats’ lead has increased slowly since mid-March, when it was 5.1 points, and is now at a high this cycle.

This Democratic margin will probably be enough for them to gain control of the House despite the gerrymandering, but not the Senate. I wrote on April 9^[11] that on a uniform swing, Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate.

Australia: senator defects to Labor and pre-budget Morgan poll

In 2022, Tammy Tyrrell was elected a Tasmanian senator by the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN). Tyrrell defected from the JLN to become in independent in 2024, and on Thursday she defected^[12] to Labor. Tyrrell will be up for election in 2028.

This defection gives Labor 30 of the 76 senators^[13], with the Coalition holding 27, the Greens ten, One Nation four and others five. Labor and the Greens combined now have 40 seats, one more than the 39 needed for a majority.

A national Morgan poll^[14], conducted May 4–10 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 30.5% of the primary vote (up one since the late April/early May Morgan poll), the Coalition 25% (up one), One Nation 22% (up 0.5), the Greens 11.5% (down 1.5) and all Others 11% (down one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 53.5–46.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 52.5–47.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. This poll was mostly conducted before the May 9 Farrer byelection.

Past election updates

After a full distribution of preferences in the Tasmanian upper house seat of Resevears^[15], Liberal Jo Palmer retained, defeating Labor by 52.8–47.2, from primary votes of 42.4% Palmer, 25.1% Labor, 16.4% Greens and 16.0% for an independent.

I previously reported^[16] that left-wing independent Clare Glade-Wright defeated conservative independent incumbent Dean Harriss in Huon. Tasmania’s upper house has 15 members elected for rotating six-year terms. Every May, two or three seats are up for election.

Party standings after Huon and Rosevears are unchanged, with three Liberals, three Labor, one Green and eight independents, but a left-wing independent replaced a conservative independent.

At the Farrer federal byelection, near-final results^[17] have One Nation’s David Farley beating independent Michelle Milthorpe by 57.5–42.5 (56.2–43.8 to the Liberals against Milthorpe at the 2025 election^[18]).

Primary votes are 39.5% Farley (up 32.9% on One Nation’s 2025 vote), 28.2% Milthorpe (up 8.2%), 12.4% Liberals (down 31.0%), 9.8% Nationals (new), 2.3% Legalise Cannabis (new), 2.3% Greens (down 2.7%) and 1.9% Shooters (down 1.5%). Labor didn’t contest after getting 15.1% in 2025.

Although it’s clear that Farley won Farrer, the electoral commission will need to wait until the deadline for the receipt of late postals next Friday^[19] before they can begin the full distribution of preferences and declare Farley elected. Tests that would allow an early declaration have not been met.

The Liberals retained Nepean^[20] at the May 2 Victorian state byelection, defeating teal independent Tracee Hutchison by 63.2–36.8 after preferences, from primary votes of 38.7% Liberals, 24.5% One Nation, 21.0% Hutchison, 9.4% Greens and 2.9% Legalise Cannabis.

On Greens preferences^[21], Hutchison moved ahead of One Nation by 30.6–27.4 to finish second. One Nation preferences favoured the Liberal ahead of Hutchison by 77.5–22.5.

References

1. ^{^} Nate Silver’s aggregate (www.natesilver.net)
2. ^{^} April 29 article (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} US S&P 500 stock market index has surged (www.google.com)
4. ^{^} US support for the Iran war (www.natesilver.net)
5. ^{^} US Supreme Court (www.abc.net.au)
6. ^{^} Virginia Supreme Court rejected (www.cnbc.com)
7. ^{^} April 21 Virginia referendum (www.nytimes.com)
8. ^{^} explained by Silver (www.natesilver.net)
9. ^{^} analyst Nate Cohn (www.nytimes.com)
10. ^{^} aggregate of the generic ballot polls (www.natesilver.net)
11. ^{^} wrote on April 9 (theconversation.com)
12. ^{^} Thursday she defected (www.9news.com.au)
13. ^{^} gives Labor 30 of the 76 senators (en.wikipedia.org)
14. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
15. ^{^} Resevears (www.tec.tas.gov.au)
16. ^{^} previously reported (theconversation.com)
17. ^{^} near-final results (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
18. ^{^} 2025 election (theconversation.com)
19. ^{^} receipt of late postals next Friday (aec.gov.au)
20. ^{^} Liberals retained Nepean (vec.vic.gov.au)
21. ^{^} Greens preferences (vec.vic.gov.au)