Coalition preferences could deliver a One Nation victory in Farrer by-election

Since 2025, the radical-right One Nation party has experienced a polling surge^[1] – regularly polling ahead of the Coalition.

In the midst of this surge, and wider voter fragmentation, the Coalition is facing a by-election contest in the rural NSW electorate of Farrer on May 9^[2].

Farrer is centred around the regional city of Albury and surrounding agricultural areas. This by-election was caused by the resignation of former Liberal Leader Sussan Ley from parliament.

A decision by the Liberals and Nationals to direct preferences to One Nation^[3] could prove decisive – and deliver the seat to the One Nation candidate, David Farley.

Wait, remind me how preferences work?

Australian elections have voters order each candidate on their House of Representatives ballot paper according to their preferences.

Preference deals are commonly made between political parties at elections.

However, it is important to note parties do not have actual control^[4] over where voter preferences go.

Instead, a “preference deal” merely refers to the recommendations they publish on digital and physical how-to-vote cards, which voters are not bound to follow.

Read more: Explainer: what are preference deals and how do they work?^[5]

The 2025 federal election continued a long-term downward trend in first-preference votes for the major parties.

More recently, strong flows of Greens preferences have tended to help elect Labor candidates from second place on the primary vote.

But on May 9, preferences may help elect One Nation to Ley’s old seat.

Liberals and Nationals to preference One Nation in Farrer

Ley had held the seat since 2001, after winning it in an extremely close contest with the Nationals^[6].

In the 2025 federal election, Ley won on the two-candidate count 56.19% to 43.81%^[7] against independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.

Milthorpe is recontesting the by-election, with seat and national polling suggesting the contest^[8] is between her and Farley. (Labor has chosen not to contest the by-election.)

Both the Liberals and Nationals – who are each running candidates due to their being no Coalition incumbent – have recommended preferences to Farley over Milthorpe^[9].

This recommendation could decide the outcome, as it is likely neither Coalition candidate will make the final count.

Preference deals and One Nation

Historically, preference deals with One Nation have been fraught for the centre-right.

In dealing with One Nation’s first iteration in the late 1990s, the Coalition refused to recommend preferences to One Nation. It labelled them a fringe party with extreme beliefs^[11].

Since the election of One Nation leader and founder, Pauline Hanson, to the Senate in 2016, the Coalition’s stance has gradually softened towards preferencing One Nation.

In the 2017 Western Australian state election, the Liberal Party entered into a preference recommendation deal with One Nation. This was the first of any such deal nationwide.

This deal backfired. Both the Liberals and Hanson claimed it damaged their respective support^[12].

Despite this, more preference deals between One Nation and the Liberals followed.

In the March 2026 South Australian state election, the Liberals recommended preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor in every seat across the state.

Interestingly, One Nation elected to run what’s known as an “open ticket”. This means not recommending preferences to either major party. That said, there were some accusations of individual volunteers filling in how-to-vote recommendation cards to favour the Liberals^[13], which is fineable under SA election regulations.

This SA election represented a high watermark for One Nation, which won four House of Assembly and three Legislative Council seats.

Additionally, the party won 22.9% of first-preference votes, eclipsing the Liberal Party (which got just 18.9%^[14]).

This was sufficient for One Nation to come second to Labor in 25 out of 47 lower house seats, compared with the Liberals’ 13.

This provides a good idea of what happens when Coalition preferences are distributed.

Preference data compiled by electoral analyst Ben Raue^[15] shows that approximately two thirds of Liberal preferences flowed to One Nation in Labor vs One Nation contests. This helped One Nation win the seats of Hammond and Ngadjuri^[16] in the SA election.

The Liberal Party has also recommended preferences to One Nation over independent candidate Tracee Hutchinson in the May 2 Nepean by-election^[17] in the Victorian lower house.

One Nation has reciprocated this recommendation, with reports suggesting^[18] the Liberals are preparing to recommend preferences to One Nation in the November 2026 Victorian state election.

One Nation mainstreamed?

The willingness of the Liberals to countenance preference deals with One Nation suggests the far-right party has been mainstreamed^[19].

Historically, One Nation was regarded as a racist and extremist party by both Labor and the Coalition.

By recommending preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor, the Coalition further legitimates One Nation as a mainstream political actor.

The Coalition’s policy and personnel changes also reflect a deep strategic unease about One Nation’s popular support.

The recent Coalition announcement^[20] of a “values based” immigration policy legitimates One Nation’s exclusionary stance on immigration through emulation.

By preferencing and emulating One Nation, the Coalition is likely enhancing, rather than limiting, Hanson’s political influence.

References

1. ^{^} polling surge (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} May 9 (www.aec.gov.au)
3. ^{^} direct preferences to One Nation (www.abc.net.au)
4. ^{^} do not have actual control (theconversation.com)
5. ^{^} Explainer: what are preference deals and how do they work? (theconversation.com)
6. ^{^} contest with the Nationals (www.aec.gov.au)
7. ^{^} won on the two-candidate count 56.19% to 43.81% (results.aec.gov.au)
8. ^{^} with seat and national polling suggesting the contest (www.heraldsun.com.au)
9. ^{^} Farley over Milthorpe (www.theguardian.com)
10. ^{^} AAP Image/Susie Dodds (photos.aap.com.au)
11. ^{^} fringe party with extreme beliefs (www.sbs.com.au)
12. ^{^} damaged their respective support (www.theguardian.com)
13. ^{^} favour the Liberals (www.abc.net.au)
14. ^{^} 18.9% (result.ecsa.sa.gov.au)
15. ^{^} Ben Raue (www.tallyroom.com.au)
16. ^{^} win the seats of Hammond and Ngadjuri (antonygreen.com.au)
17. ^{^} May 2 Nepean by-election (www.abc.net.au)
18. ^{^} reports suggesting (www.theage.com.au)
19. ^{^} mainstreamed (www.cambridge.org)
20. ^{^} announcement (theconversation.com)