Polls suggest Trump still shielding Labor as right-wing vote drops

In my March 30 article^[1] about Newspoll and two other polls, I said Donald Trump’s unpopularity was shielding Labor from a backlash over the fuel crisis. The YouGov and Morgan polls imply that’s still the case, with the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 45–45.5% (down one in YouGov and 3.5 in Morgan in the last fortnight).

This article also covers Newspoll aggregate data for January to March and the final lower house results of the March 21 South Australian state election.

YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll^[2] for Sky News, conducted March 31 to April 7 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up one since the March 17–24 YouGov poll), One Nation 25% (down two), the Coalition 20% (up one), the Greens 13% (steady), independents 6% (steady) and others 7% (up one).

Respondent preferences gave Labor a 55–45 lead over both the Coalition and One Nation, a one-point gain for Labor against the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor against One Nation.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -16 (55% dissatisfied, 39% satisfied). Angus Taylor’s net approval was up seven points to -1 (39% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor by 44–36 as better PM, up from a six-point lead.

By 77–6, respondents thought energy costs would increase rather than decrease in the next 12 months. By 63–6, they thought unemployment would increase. Donald Trump was thought to have handled the Iran war badly by 71%, including “more than half” very badly.

Two Morgan polls

A national Morgan poll^[3], conducted March 23–29 from a sample of 1,562, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up three since the March 16–22 Morgan poll), One Nation 23.5% (steady), the Coalition 22.5% (down three), the Greens 13.5% (steady) and all Others 10.5% (steady).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 56.5–43.5, a four-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 3.5-point gain for Labor.

The second Morgan poll^[4], conducted March 30 to April 5 from a sample of 1,411, gave Labor 30.5% of the primary vote (up 0.5), the Coalition 24% (up 1.5), One Nation 21.5% (down two), the Greens 12% (down 1.5) and all Others 12% (up 1.5).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 56–44, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

In a Morgan SMS poll^[5], conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2,514, respondents supported the federal government’s fuel excise cut by 83–17. But by 64–36, they were dissatisfied with the government’s management of the fuel shortage.

Newspoll aggregate data from January to March

The Australian released aggregate data on Monday^[6] for the four Newspolls conducted from mid-January to late March, from an overall sample of 4,927.

Compared with the October to November Newspoll aggregate^[7], Labor had 32% of the national primary vote (down four), One Nation 25% (up 11), the Coalition 20% (down five), the Greens 12% (steady) and all Others 11% (down two). No two-party estimates were given.

The Poll Bludger’s data^[8] has state and demographic breakdowns. In Queensland, One Nation took the lead with 30% of the primary vote (up 12), with Labor on 27% (down six), the Coalition 23% (down four) and the Greens 11% (up one).

In New South Wales, Labor had 31% (down six), One Nation 27% (up 13), the Coalition 18% (down six) and the Greens 12% (steady). In Victoria, Labor had 32% (down three), the Coalition 22% (down four), One Nation 21% (up ten) and the Greens 14% (down two).

In Western Australia, Labor had 34% (down three), One Nation 27% (up 13), the Coalition 20% (down eight) and the Greens 9% (down three). In SA, Labor had 39% (up one), One Nation 27% (up 12), the Coalition 13% (down 12) and the Greens 12% (up two).

Among those without any tertiary education, One Nation led with 34% (up 14), with Labor at 27% (down three), the Coalition 19% (down seven) and the Greens 12% (down two). Among those with a TAFE education, One Nation had 30% (up 11), Labor 29% (down six), the Coalition 19% (down five) and the Greens 10% (up one). Among the university-educated, Labor had 36% (down five), the Coalition 21% (down five), One Nation 17% (up 11) and the Greens 13% (steady).

Polls of three teal-held seats

The Poll Bludger^[9] reported uComms polls of three teal-held seats for the left-wing Australia Institute. The polls were all conducted March 17–19 from samples of 1,040 to 1,190 per seat. Seat polls are unreliable.

In Kooyong, teal Monique Ryan and the Liberals were tied at 50–50 (50.7–49.3 to Ryan at the 2025 election^[10]). In Mackellar, teal Sophie Scamps held a 56.7–43.3 lead over the Liberals (55.7–44.3 at the election). In Wentworth, teal Allegra Spender held a 59.4–40.6 lead over the Liberals (58.3–41.7 at the election).

South Australian election final lower house results

At the March 21 South Australian election^[11], Labor won 34 of the 47 lower house seats (up seven since the 2022 election), the Liberals five (down 11), One Nation four (up four) and independents four (steady). In the closest seat of Narungga^[12], One Nation defeated the Liberals by just 58 votes after preferences.

The Poll Bludger’s results maps^[13] show Labor won 32 of the 33 seats in Adelaide, missing out only in Bragg. The right needs to do better in Australia’s big cities to win elections.

Statewide primary votes^[14] were 37.5% Labor (down 2.5% since the 2022 election), 22.9% One Nation (up 20.3%), 18.9% Liberals (down 16.7%), 10.4% Greens (up 1.3%), 5.5% independents (down 1.9%) and 4.8% others (down 0.4%).

The table below shows the SA polls compared against the election results. “F&H” is Fox & Hedgehog. Bold numbers are where the result was within 1% of the poll. The worst poll was the Resolve experimental AI poll that overstated One Nation and understated Labor. The four other pollsters were much better, with YouGov the best. Newspoll was too high on both Labor and the Greens.