Labor has huge lead in a South Australian poll, 5 months from the election
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Labor has a blowout lead in South Australia, with the election in March 2026. The federal party has also expanded its lead in a Morgan poll.
The South Australian state election will be held in March 2026. A DemosAU and Ace Strategies poll[1] for InDaily, conducted October 6–15 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 66–34 lead (54.6–45.4 to Labor at the March 2022 election[2]).
Primary votes were 47% Labor, 21% Liberals, 13% Greens and 19% for all Others. If this poll was replicated at the election, on a uniform swing the Liberals would be reduced to three to six of the 47 lower house seats, with leader Vincent Tarzia losing his seat.
This poll suggests the SA 2026 election will be the second biggest landslide to one party at a state or federal election, with only the 2021 Western Australian election[3] ahead, which Labor won by 69.7–30.3. A YouGov SA poll[4] in May gave Labor a 67–33 lead.
Labor incumbent Peter Malinauskas led Tarzia by 58–19 as preferred premier. Respondents were asked if they had a positive, neutral or negative opinion of various politicians[5]. Malinauskas was at net +35 positive, while Tarzia was at net -15.
Despite Labor’s dominance, the state government had net negative ratings from -32 to -42 for its handling of housing, the algal bloom, hospital ramping and cost of living.
Upper house voting intentions in this poll were 37% Labor, 17% Liberals, 12% One Nation, 11% Greens and 4% for each of Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis and SA-Best. Of the upper house seats, 11 of the 22 will be up for election using proportional representation with preferences.
Queensland Resolve poll has Labor retaining its lead
A Queensland state Resolve poll[6] for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the September and October federal Resolve polls from a sample of 868, gave the Liberal National Party 33% of the primary vote (down one since August), Labor 32% (steady), the Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 9% (up one), independents 7% (down one) and others 8% (up one).
Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls. The Poll Bludger estimated Labor would lead[7] by 51.5–48.5.
LNP premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability dropped three points since August to +17, while Labor leader Steven Miles was down one point to -2. Crisafulli led as preferred premier by 39–22 (40–25 previously).
The previous Queensland Resolve poll had Labor in a far better position[9] than two Queensland polls taken in July that gave the LNP big leads. There haven’t been any statewide Queensland polls since July other than Resolve.
A Redbridge and Accent Research poll[10] only of southeast Queensland for the Courier Mail, conducted in October from a sample of 1,013, gave Labor a 52–48 lead in that region (50.3–49.7 to the LNP in this region at the 2024 election). The LNP won the 2024 election overall by 53.8–46.2[11], so a two-point overall swing to Labor would not be enough to oust the LNP.
Victorian Redbridge poll gives Labor a 52–48 lead
A Victorian state Redbridge poll[12] for the Financial Review, conducted October 8–14 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since a September Redbridge poll[13] for The Herald Sun.
Primary votes were 37% Coalition, 32% Labor, 13% Greens and 18% for all Others, with no changes since September. Labor led by 54–46 in Melbourne, where 80% of Victoria’s population lives, while the Coalition led by 53–47 in regional Victoria. The next Victorian election is in November 2026.
Labor expands lead in federal Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll[14], conducted September 22 to October 19 from a sample of 4,908, gave Labor a 57–43 lead by respondent preferences, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the September Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 35% Labor (up one), 27% Coalition (down three), 13% Greens (up one), 12% One Nation (up 2.5) and 13% for all Others (down 1.5). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 57–43, a 1.5-point gain for Labor.
Labor led in every state, reversing a Coalition lead in Queensland in September to now lead by 50.5–49.5. They had much bigger leads in other states. While the Coalition led by 52–48 among those aged 65 and over, there was a four-point gain for Labor since September. Labor continued to dominate with voters aged under 50.
Additional federal Resolve questions
In additional questions from the early October federal Resolve poll[16] for Nine newspapers, 48% wanted Albanese to be polite to Trump[17], but firm in representing Australia’s values at their October 20 meeting, 25% wanted Albanese to tell Trump that Australia is unhappy with his conduct and 13% wanted to prioritise keeping the US happy and on side.
By 36–30, respondents supported allowing the US and UK to dock their nuclear submarines in Perth from 2027.
UK Labour crashes in Caerphilly byelection and other international electoral events
The centre-left Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru gained Caerphilly from Labour at a Welsh byelection on Thursday, defeating the far-right Reform by 47.4–36.0 with just 11.0% for Labour. At the previous election for Caerphilly in 2021, Labour defeated Plaid by 46.0–28.4. I wrote about this for The Poll Bludger[18] and also covered recent electoral events in Moldova, the Czech Republic and Japan.
On Saturday, Lucy Powell defeated Bridget Phillipson to win the UK Labour deputy leadership and the left-wing Catherine Connolly won the symbolic Irish presidency. My Poll Bludger article[19] also covered upcoming midterm elections in Argentina, a national Dutch election and US state elections.
References
- ^ DemosAU and Ace Strategies poll (www.indailysa.com.au)
- ^ March 2022 election (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ 2021 Western Australian election (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ YouGov SA poll (au.yougov.com)
- ^ various politicians (demosau.com)
- ^ Queensland state Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger estimated Labor would lead (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ Russell Freeman/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ far better position (theconversation.com)
- ^ Redbridge and Accent Research poll (www.couriermail.com.au)
- ^ overall by 53.8–46.2 (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ Victorian state Redbridge poll (www.afr.com)
- ^ September Redbridge poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ Sitthixay Ditthavong/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ early October federal Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Albanese to be polite to Trump (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ this for The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ Poll Bludger article (www.pollbludger.net)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
