Labor slides back in a Victorian Resolve poll; federal Labor still well on top
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A Victorian Resolve poll has Labor sliding back after a surge in August. Federal Labor had a 55–45 lead in Resolve and a 54–46 lead in Redbridge, with One Nation recording its highest vote in any poll since 1998.
A Victorian state Resolve poll[1] for The Age, conducted with the federal September and October Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 33% of the primary vote (steady since August), Labor 30% (down two), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 10% (up one) and others 15% (up two).
Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls, but The Poll Bludger estimated[2] a “tight result”, with preference flows from the 25% who are voting for an independent or another party being crucial.
Liberal Brad Battin led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan by 33–27 as preferred premier (32–25 in August). Allan’s net likeability was steady[3] at -21, while Battin’s net likeability was +9.
The next Victorian state election will be held in November 2026. Labor had a massive surge in the August poll to retake the lead, and it has slipped back in this poll. The preferred premier measure usually favours incumbents more than voting intentions.
Battin’s lead as preferred premier may mean that Labor’s vote has been boosted by the federal election result. When voters focus more on state issues in the lead-up to the election, Labor could drop back further.
By the next election, Labor will have governed Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27 years. An “it’s time” factor should favour the Coalition.
Federal Resolve poll has large Labor lead
A national Resolve poll[4] for Nine newspapers, conducted October 7–12 from a sample of 1,800, gave Labor a 55–45 lead by respondent preferences, unchanged since September.
Primary votes were 34% Labor (down one), 28% Coalition (up one), 12% One Nation (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 9% independents (steady) and 7% others (up one). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by above 55–45, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped five points to -6, with 47% rating his performance bad and 41% good. Sussan Ley’s net approval slumped 14 points to -5, but it is still much higher than in the early October Newspoll[5] (-20). Albanese extended his lead over Ley to 40–23 as preferred PM from 38–26 in September.
On the best way forward for the Coalition, 32% thought they should move towards the political centre ground, 25% to the conservative right and 11% thought they shouldn’t change. Among Coalition voters, this was 33% to centre, 32% to right and 12% no change.
Labor led the Liberals on economic management[6] by 29–28 (a 29–29 tie in September). On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 28–24, reversing a 28–27 Liberal lead in September. In the September Resolve poll[7], cost of living was rated the most important issue by 40%, far ahead of any other issue.
Asked if they were likely to buy a new vehicle[8] in the next year or two, 35% said they were considering buying a petrol or diesel vehicle, 21% a hybrid vehicle and just 11% a fully electric vehicle (EV), while 30% were unlikely to buy a new vehicle.
Almost half cited the high cost of EVs as a barrier, with 40% citing a lack of charging infrastructure. By 56–13, respondents supported a road user charge for EV drivers. By 52–15, they thought funds raised from a road user charge should be used to roll out EV charging infrastructure.
By 44–22, voters supported Australia’s continued commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, with Coalition voters favouring net zero by 38–31.
Redbridge poll
The Poll Bludger reported[9] that a national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted September 25 to October 7 from a sample of 1,997, gave Labor a 54–46 lead by respondent preferences, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the September Redbridge poll.
Primary votes were 34% Labor (down one), 29% Coalition (down one), 14% One Nation (up three), 11% Greens (steady) and 12% for all Others (down one). By 2025 election preference flows, this poll would be about 54–46 to Labor, a one-point gain for the Coalition. It’s the closest by this measure of any poll since the election.
Analyst Kevin Bonham said[10] the 14% for One Nation in this poll is their best in any reputable national poll since their first peak in 1998. Redbridge has been better for One Nation than other polls this term.
Respondents were tied 37–37 on whether the Coalition should drop its support for net zero. By 47–35, they did not think the Albanese Labor government had the right priorities. But by 55–16, they did not think Ley’s Coalition was ready for government.
References
- ^ state Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ The Poll Bludger estimated (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ was steady (theconversation.com)
- ^ Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ early October Newspoll (theconversation.com)
- ^ economic management (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ September Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ buy a new vehicle (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger reported (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ Kevin Bonham said (x.com)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
