After yet another election, Tasmanians are left wondering what the point of it was
- Written by Robert Hortle, Deputy Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania
When the results firmed up a few hours after polling closed on Saturday, many Tasmanians would have been wondering, “what was the point of all that?”.
A state election only 16 months after the last one looks to have delivered a parliament with a broadly similar distribution of seats.
Read more: Liberals easily win most seats at Tasmanian election, but Labor may form government[1]
The results
By the time counting ceased last night, the ABC[2] had the Liberals on 14 seats, Labor on nine, the Greens on five, and three confirmed independents.
With 65.3% of the vote counted, four seats remained in doubt. There was a small positive swing to the Liberals (3.3%), while a swing against Labor of 3.1% has them on track for their worst primary vote in more than a hundred years[4]. The final seats may not be confirmed for a couple of weeks.
Love, Labor’s lost
At this stage, it looks like Labor’s gambit – instigating the no confidence motion[5] that led to this election – has utterly failed. The party will now need to engage in some sober self-reflection on two fronts.
First, there is the one-dimensional strategy that brought on the election and allowed the Liberals to blame Labor – and leader Dean Winter in particular – for dragging Tasmanians to the polls again.
Labor had hoped that targeting the no confidence motion specifically at Premier Jeremy Rockliff would encourage the conservative-leaning Liberal cabinet to turf out their moderate leader.
It was a near thing. Rockliff’s rivals apparently had almost enough votes to depose him by the time the Governor called the election.
But did anyone at Labor HQ plan for what would happen if their gamble failed and the Liberals held firm under Rockliff? As Labor’s woefully under-prepared campaign stumbled into motion, it seemed the answer was “no”.
Second, there will be questions asked about that lacklustre campaign, just as there were in 2024. An opposition could not ask for more favourable conditions: an 11-year incumbent government suffering a string of high profile policy failures; a looming mountain[7] of debt; and ongoing health, education, housing, cost of living and sustainability challenges.
And yet, Labor suffered negative swings in every seat, and they are battling to match their 2024 result of 10 seats.
Liberals and Greens hold firm
The Liberals will be pleased with the result. In the face of the dire circumstances outlined above, they have secured a positive swing in their primary vote and may pick up one or (at an outside chance) two additional seats.
It doesn’t seem like their pro-stadium stance lost them votes in the north – where the proposal is unpopular[8] – in part because Labor denied themselves a point of difference by also supporting the stadium.
Former Bass MP Bridget Archer has polled strongly for the Liberals at a state level.
Ethan James/AAP[9]
Another important factor in the north was the recruitment of two former federal Liberal MPs in Bass and Braddon, who are both polling well so far. However, their success may come at the expense of sitting Liberal members.
The Greens’ vote held steady, with a projected 0.2% increase in their primary vote[10]. All of their MPs had been returned before the close of counting on Saturday night, and they will be hoping one more can scrape through in Braddon.
The crossbench zoo
As expected, ex-Labor MP David O'Byrne, centre-left Kristie Johnston, and maverick Northwester Craig Garland were all returned. Johnston and Garland, in particlar, seem to have strongly increased their vote shares.
There will be at least one new independent, with anti-salmon farm advocate Peter George securing a very strong primary vote in Franklin off the back of his recent federal campaign.
There is a chance that this broadly progressive crossbench will be joined by climate change denier[11] and pro-gun rights candidate Carlo di Falco (Lyons) from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.
Where to now?
So how are the major party leaders approaching the looming period of wheeling and dealing? Who’s forming minority government?
Rockliff was the first to address the tally room on election night. He boldly claimed that the voters had re-endorsed his Liberal government – based on their increased vote share – and said he will ask the Governor to recommission him as premier.
However, with only 14 or 15 seats, it will be challenging for the Liberals to implement their agenda in a parliament featuring a crossbench that is, for the most part, solidly progressive and vehemently anti-stadium.
The Greens’ leader, Rosalie Woodruff, also spoke and again extended an offer of cooperation to Labor.
Finally, as election night drew to a close, Labor Leader Dean Winter stepped up to speak. His tonally confused speech began with a tribute to murdered Tasmanian Police Constable Keith Smith[12], then shifted to the need for a more collaborative approach to politics. Winter left things on a cliffhanger, essentially saying “let’s wait and see”.
Observers in the room noted the speech was strikingly similar to that given by former leader Rebecca White following the 2024 election – shortly before she was replaced by Winter.
Will Labor have a crack at forming government? There would be a few obstacles to this. First, Winter would have to negotiate support from the diverse crossbench, including the Greens, with whom he has previously vowed[13] not to collaborate.
He and Labor have ignored previous opportunities to seize government in this way, the most recent being just five weeks ago. A change in tack at this stage could be difficult to sell.
And if Rockliff forges ahead with his stated plan, Labor and the crossbench would need to vote down a new Liberal minority government on the floor of parliament. Labor would need to be very certain of their ability to govern before doing this – or risk another election.
So while all of the party leaders spoke of maturity and collaboration in their speeches, until actions match words, Tasmanians will be forced to watch the parliamentary shenanigans continue.
References
- ^ Liberals easily win most seats at Tasmanian election, but Labor may form government (theconversation.com)
- ^ the ABC (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ ABC News (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ worst primary vote in more than a hundred years (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ no confidence motion (theconversation.com)
- ^ Chris Kidd/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ looming mountain (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ is unpopular (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Ethan James/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ 0.2% increase in their primary vote (pollbludger.net)
- ^ climate change denier (newnorfolknews.com)
- ^ Keith Smith (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ previously vowed (www.facebook.com)
Authors: Robert Hortle, Deputy Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania
