Election flows reveal nearly 90% of Greens preferenced Labor ahead of Coalition
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Minor party preference flows for the federal election have been released, with Labor winning Greens preferences by 88.2–11.8, while the Coalition won One Nation preferences by 74.5–24.5. I also cover a SA state poll that gave Labor a massive 67–33 lead.
The Australian Electoral Commission’s results for the May 3 federal election now show how minor parties’ preferences flowed[1] between Labor and the Coalition. The Greens won 12.2% of the national primary vote[2], and their preferences favoured Labor over the Coalition by 88.2–11.8. That’s a 2.5% preference flow gain for Labor since the 2022 election[3].
One Nation had 6.4% of primary votes. Their preferences favoured the Coalition over Labor by 74.5–25.5, a 10.2% preference flow gain for the Coalition. Independents made up 7.3% of primary votes, and their preferences favoured Labor by 67.2–32.8, a 3.4% gain for Labor.
Including Trumpet of Patriots (1.9% of primary votes) with others, others made up 7.7% of primary votes and their preferences favoured the Coalition by 57.3–42.7, a 0.6% gain for the Coalition since 2022 if United Australia Party[4] (4.1% in 2022) is included with others then.
The AEC formally declared the poll by returning the writs[5] on June 12. Results can be legally challenged within 40 days of this declaration, so by July 22.
In Bradfield[6], Teal Nicolette Boele only won by 26 votes against the Liberals, and this result could be challenged.
As the AEC does not want to disturb the ballot papers until any challenge is resolved by the courts, it is for now using an estimated two-party result in Bradfield (55.0–45.0 to the Liberals against Labor). Analyst Ben Raue believes this estimate[7] is understating Labor in Bradfield by 4.4%.
If Raue is right, the current national two-party vote (55.22–44.78 to Labor) is very slightly understating Labor.
While One Nation’s preference shift helped the Coalition, there were compensatory shifts to Labor from Greens and independent voters. The combined primary vote for One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots was down 0.8% from 2022 to 8.3%, while independents were up 2.0%.
Applying 2022 election flows to primary votes at this election only overstates Labor by 0.1% compared to their actual two-party vote.
In my poll review article[8] on June 5, I said respondent allocated preferences in final polls did not show a large gap in the Coalition’s favour from using 2022 election flows that had occurred in polls earlier in the year.
It’s likely that Labor’s share of preferences from Greens and Teal-type independents rose close to the election. People who voted for these candidates may have been disappointed with Labor’s environmental record, but both Peter Dutton and Donald Trump helped Labor with these people.
In the last term, the Greens were economically left-wing as well as pro-environment. Voters who supported the Greens because of their economic agenda are probably less likely to prefer the Coalition to Labor than environmental voters.
The Poll Bludger has a graph[9] that shows that, in federal elections since 2004, Labor’s share of Greens preferences was at a record high this election, but their share of One Nation preferences was at a record low.
Weak Labor flows to Boele
In Bradfield, Labor preferences favoured Boele by 68.6–31.4 against the Liberals.There were 16 other seats[10] where Labor preferences were distributed between the Coalition and a non-Coalition candidate. The Labor flow to Boele was the second weakest in such seats. This weak flow almost cost Boele Bradfield.
The only seat that had a weaker Labor preference flow to a non-Coalition candidate was Maranoa, where the non-Coalition candidate was One Nation. Labor preferences in Maranoa split 57.9–42.1 to the Liberal National Party against One Nation. In 13 of the 17 seats, Labor preferences flowed at over 75% rates to the non-Coalition candidate.
In early April, the ABC reported Boele[12] had made a crude sexual remark to a 19-year-old employee at a hair salon after receiving a haircut and was banned from that salon. This may explain the weaker preference flow from Labor voters.
Weak Greens flows to Teals in Teal vs Labor contests
There were three seats where the final two were Labor and a Teal independent: Bean, Franklin and Fremantle. In Bean and Fremantle, the Liberals recommended preferences to the Teal on their how to vote material, but not in Franklin.
Labor held all three seats, but only by 50.3–49.7 in Bean[13] and 50.7–49.3 in Fremantle[14]. Labor won much more easily in Franklin[15], by 57.8–42.2, where they benefited from Liberal how to vote cards.
In Bean, Greens preferences only favoured Teal Jessie Price by 50.6–49.4 over Labor, while Liberal preferences favoured her by 80.0–20.0. In Fremantle, Greens preferences favoured Teal Kate Hulett by 52.9–47.1, while Liberal preferences favoured her by 76.5–23.5. In Franklin, Greens preferences favoured Teal Peter George by 53.8–46.2.
In Bean and Fremantle, had Greens preferences been stronger for the Teal, Labor would have lost to a more pro-environment candidate. Perhaps Labor benefited on Greens preferences owing to the Greens’ more economic left-wing agenda.
And a national Morgan poll[17], conducted June 2–22 from a sample of 3,957, gave Labor a 58–42 lead, unchanged from the previous Morgan poll in May. Primary votes were 37.5% Labor (up 0.5), 31% Coalition (steady), 12% Greens (up 0.5), 6% One Nation (steady) and 13.5% for all Others (down one).
By 43–41.5, voters thought the country was headed in the right direction, the first time right direction has led since February 2023. The overall net +1.5 rating is +48 with Labor voters, +11.5 with Greens, -43 with Coalition voters, -80.5 with One Nation voters and -17.5 with all Others.
Labor holds massive lead in SA
The next South Australian state election will be held in March 2026. A YouGov poll[18] for The Adelaide Advertiser, conducted May 15–28 from a sample of 903, gave Labor a massive 67–33 lead over the Liberals (54.6–45.4 to Labor at the March 2022 election[19]). Primary votes were 48% Labor, 21% Liberals, 14% Greens, 7% One Nation, 8% independents and 2% others.
If the results at next March’s election reflect this poll, the Liberals would hold just two of the 47 lower house seats on a uniform swing. It would be easily their worst result in SA state history.
In Australian electoral history, there has only been one bigger landslide: when Western Australian Labor defeated the Liberals and Nationals by 69.7–30.3 at the March 2021 state election[20].
Socialist likely to be next New York City mayor
I covered today’s AEST New York City Democratic mayoral primary election for The Poll Bludger[21]. While preferences won’t be tabulated until next Tuesday, the socialist Zohran Mamdani leads former New York governor Andrew Cuomo by 43.5–36.4 on primary votes, and is virtually certain to win. As the Democratic nominee, Mamdani is likely to win the November general election.
The article also covers Donald Trump’s ratings and polls in Israel.
References
- ^ minor parties’ preferences flowed (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ national primary vote (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ 2022 election (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ United Australia Party (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ returning the writs (www.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Bradfield (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Ben Raue believes this estimate (www.tallyroom.com.au)
- ^ poll review article (theconversation.com)
- ^ Poll Bludger has a graph (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ 16 other seats (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Dean Lewins/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ ABC reported Boele (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Bean (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Fremantle (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Franklin (results.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Lukas Coch/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ YouGov poll (www.adelaidenow.com.au)
- ^ March 2022 election (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ March 2021 state election (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
