Australians are warming to minority governments – but they still prefer majority rule

Minority governments have been part of Australia’s political history since Federation.

In the country’s early decades, Prime Ministers Edmund Barton, Alfred Deakin, Chris Watson, George Reid and Andrew Fisher all led without commanding a majority in the House of Representatives. Since the second world war, majority governments have become the norm at the national level, underpinned by the two-party system of Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition.

Minority government has been rare, with the notable exception of Julia Gillard’s Labor government from 2010 to 2013. However, at the state/territory level, minority governments are far more common^[1].

The 2025 federal election could mark another shift. While Labor has pulled ahead in the polls^[2] over the course of the campaign, a minority government remains a real possibility.

Even if a slim majority is achieved, the trend of falling primary votes for both major parties suggests minority governments could become more common in the years ahead^[3].

We have examined new data from more than 3,600 respondents in the March/April wave of the 2025 Election Monitoring Survey Series (EMSS^[4]) from the School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR^[5]) at the ANU. The results shed light on how Australians feel about the prospect of minority government, and how these attitudes could shape political expectations.

Australians are more accepting of minority governments

When respondents were asked whether they found the idea of a minority government acceptable, more said they did (39.3%) than said they did not (32.6%).

This pattern is especially strong among Labor voters, minor party supporters, and those undecided about their vote. Only among Liberal voters was a minority government viewed more negatively, with a majority (51.8%) saying it would be unacceptable.

These findings suggest that minority government does not present the widespread illegitimacy and inefficiency to the electorate that is sometimes claimed by political leaders^[6].

Fears of instability, but hopes for accountability

Despite growing acceptance, Australians are divided about the likely consequences of a minority government.

When asked whether a minority government would make politics more unstable or more representative and accountable, the country was split. About 42.7% expected more instability, while 37.6% expected greater representativeness. Another 19.6% believed it would make no real difference.

Again, partisan divides are stark. Coalition voters overwhelmingly expect instability (62.3%), whereas minor party supporters are more optimistic about minority government delivering better accountability.

These mixed expectations suggest while many suspect minority government will be a rocky ride, most expect little to no change. This is in contrast to recent claims a return to minority government would either further damage democracy or revitalise it by forcing change^[7].

Public supports reforms to make minority government work

If a minority government emerges post-election, institutions will need to adapt^[8]. Some changes^[9] will be legislative, others cultural, some political.

Recognising the challenges that minority governments can bring, Australians are supportive of modest reforms to help them function more effectively.

Nearly half (47.6%) support establishing an independent body to oversee power-sharing agreements between major parties and crossbench MPs. A significant share (42.7%) also back requiring minority governments to sign formal agreements with the independents or minor parties they rely on.

These preferences suggest Australians are pragmatic: if minority governments are to become more common, they want safeguards and structures to ensure stability and transparency.

Trust varies across parties – and independents score well

Australians remain relatively confident^[10] in key institutions, particularly when compared to the polarisation in other democracies^[11]. Trust is also a key factor in how Australians view different political actors in a minority government setting.

When asked how much trust they have in different groups to act responsibly in a minority parliament, Labor emerges with the highest broad trust levels (50.4%), compared to the Liberal Party (43.0%). The Greens are the least trusted (35.7%). Trust in Independents is relatively high (45.7%).

It is also interesting to note recent research tracking trends in non-major party voting^[12]. These find the Greens are increasingly likely to win seats from the ALP, while the Independents are more likely to win seats from the LNP.

This matters. Who holds the balance of power has implications for maintaining trust in government. These results would indicate that if independents hold the balance of power, it may not undermine, but may actually contribute to, broader trust.

A preference for majority rule remains

Despite growing openness to minority governments, Australians still show a strong attachment to the traditional model of majority government in the House of Representatives.

When asked whether “stable and effective government requires a majority of seats for one of the two major parties within the House of Representatives”, 53.8% agreed or strongly agreed. Only 16% disagreed.

Support for this statement was strongest among Coalition voters (70.9%), but even a majority of Labor voters (54.7%) agreed. Only among minor party voters was disagreement more common.

This result is not unexpected. Both major parties assertively campaign that major party majority provides the continuity, the stability and the certainty the country needs^[13]. It is worth noting these results were recorded in the lead up to a federal election.

This result should also be set against over three decades of minority in the Senate^[14].

These findings suggest Australians prefer majority government (qualified by a desire for accountability) over minority government (particularly if that majority is led by their own party!).

It will be interesting to track these attitudes in future EMSS should a minority government occur after May 3.

What it means for the 2025 election – and beyond

The 2025 federal election could be a turning point. If Labor wins a majority, it may delay a broader shift toward minority government politics. But if another minority parliament emerges, it will test the resilience of Australia’s political institutions and the evolving attitudes of voters.

Australians appear ready to give minority government a chance – but they want it to work.

Our only concrete reference point is the Gillard government. It was recognised^[15] for its negotiation, legislative success and running full term, but widely viewed as a political failure. What this revealed is the importance of minority government that adopts^[16] a pragmatic, inclusive and flexible approach to governance.

Whatever the result, Australian electoral trends^[17] tell us minority governments are no longer the outlier they once were ^[18] in Australian politics. Voters, political leaders, and importantly public institutions may need to adapt to a new norm in Australian politics.

References

1. ^{^} common (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} polls (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} become more common in the years ahead (www.tandfonline.com)
4. ^{^} EMSS (substack.com)
5. ^{^} SPIR (politicsir.cass.anu.edu.au)
6. ^{^} claimed by political leaders (www.afr.com)
7. ^{^} further damage democracy or revitalise it by forcing change (www.blackincbooks.com.au)
8. ^{^} adapt (www.themandarin.com.au)
9. ^{^} changes (theconversation.com)
10. ^{^} relatively confident (csrm.cass.anu.edu.au)
11. ^{^} democracies (www.pewtrusts.org)
12. ^{^} tracking trends in non-major party voting (www.tandfonline.com)
13. ^{^} the continuity, the stability and the certainty the country needs (www.markbutler.net.au)
14. ^{^} minority in the Senate (press.lse.ac.uk)
15. ^{^} recognised (www.researchgate.net)
16. ^{^} adopts (www.mup.com.au)
17. ^{^} electoral trends (www.tandfonline.com)
18. ^{^} no longer the outlier they once were (www.blackincbooks.com.au)