Two polls predict a thumping victory for Labor in WA election, the first with a reformed upper house
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The Western Australian state election will be held on Saturday, with polls closing at 9pm AEDT. A Newspoll[1], conducted February 27 to March 5 from a sample of 1,061, gave Labor a 57.5–42.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since an early February WA Newspoll.
Primary votes were 44% Labor (up two), 29% Liberals (down three), 5% Nationals (up two), 10% Greens (down two), 3% One Nation (down one) and 9% for all Others (up two).
Labor Premier Roger Cook’s net approval was down one point to +17, with 55% satisfied and 38% dissatisfied. Liberal leader Libby Mettam’s net approval was up three to +1. Cook led as better premier by 53–34 (54–34 previously).
The Poll Bludger reported Friday[2] that a DemosAU poll for The West Australian, conducted March 4–5 from a sample of 1,126, gave Labor a 57–43 lead. Primary votes were 43% Labor, 30% Liberals, 5% Nationals, 11% Greens and 11% for all Others. Cook led as preferred premier over Mettam by 47–32. By 49–31, voters thought WA was headed in the right direction.
At the March 2021 WA election[3], Labor won 53 of the 59 lower house seats on a two-party vote of 69.7–30.3, a record high for either major party at any state or federal election. Labor won 59.9% of the primary vote.
Labor was never going to match the 2021 result at this election, but if the results on Saturday reflect the Newspoll and DemosAU polls, they will exceed their 2017 result[4], when Labor won 41 of the 59 seats on a two-party vote of 55.5–44.5.
Upper house reforms
Prior to this election, WA had six upper house regions that each returned six members. From the ABC’s 2021 WA election pages[5], there were three Perth regions and three non-metro regions. Perth had 75% of WA’s enrolled voters, but only 50% of upper house seats.
Furthermore, the Mining & Pastoral region and Agricultural region had far fewer enrolled voters than the South West region. Combined, these two regions had just 10.1% of WA’s enrolled voters, but 33.3% of upper house seats.
Labor’s huge 2021 win gave them a majority in the upper house for the first time in WA history, with 22 of the 36 seats. Labor used this opportunity to convert the upper house into a single statewide electorate[7] that will return 37 members by proportional representation with optional voter-directed preferences.
Under these reforms, a quota for election will be 1/38 of the vote or 2.63%. Parties that win about half the quota have a reasonable chance of winning a seat, so 1.3% could be enough to win. Labor also abolished group ticket voting (GTV), leaving Victoria as the only Australian jurisdiction[8] that still uses this discredited system.
The Poll Bludger reported on February 23 Liberal leader Libby Mettam has promised to try to revert back[9] to the old very malapportioned system if the Liberals win the election, rejecting the principle of one vote, one value. The old system was biased towards the Liberal and National parties. Analyst Kevin Bonham has condemned the Liberals[10].
ABC election analyst Antony Green said there will be 13 groups[11] on the upper house ballot paper and a total of 146 candidates. To get a group box above the line, at least five candidates for that group were required. The number of candidates has been more than halved from 2021, when there were 325 upper house candidates. Group ticket voting encouraged a proliferation of micro parties and candidates.
In the lower house, there will be a total of 398 candidates for the 59 seats, down from 463 in 2021. Labor, the Liberals and Greens will contest all seats, the Nationals will contest 20, the Australian Christians 54 and One Nation 41.
Labor has huge lead in a SA state poll
The next South Australian state election will be held in March 2026. A DemosAU poll[12], conducted February 18–23 from a sample of 1,004, gave Labor a 59–41 lead (54.6–45.4 to Labor at the March 2022 election). Primary votes were 43% Labor, 30% Liberals, 10% Greens and 17% for all Others.
Labor incumbent Peter Malinauskas led the Liberals’ Vincent Tarzia as preferred premier by 51–23. By 53–33, voters thought SA was headed in the right direction.
The Poll Bludger reported Monday[14] electoral reforms have passed parliament that will allow postal and pre-poll votes to be counted on election night. At previous SA elections, only votes cast at ordinary election day booths were counted on election night, with other types of votes taking at least a few days to count.
In the federal part of this poll, Labor led by 53–47 in SA (54.0–46.0 to Labor in SA at the 2022 federal election). Primary votes were 35% Coalition, 34% Labor, 11% Greens, 6% One Nation and 14% for all Others. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 39–33, and by 46–39 voters did not think Australia was headed in the right direction.
References
- ^ Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger reported Friday (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ March 2021 WA election (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ 2017 result (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ ABC’s 2021 WA election pages (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Richard Wainwright/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ single statewide electorate (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Victoria as the only Australian jurisdiction (theconversation.com)
- ^ Libby Mettam has promised to try to revert back (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ Kevin Bonham has condemned the Liberals (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
- ^ Antony Green said there will be 13 groups (antonygreen.com.au)
- ^ DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
- ^ Bianca De Marchi/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger reported Monday (www.pollbludger.net)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
