South Australian Labor gains Black at byelection with big swing

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black^[1]. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black by a 60.6–39.4 margin over the Liberals, a 13.3% swing to Labor since the 2022 state election. Primary votes were 46.5% Labor (up 8.4%), 32.3% Liberals (down 17.8%), 15.6% Greens (up 3.8%) and 5.6% Australian Families (new).

SA doesn’t allow pre-poll and postal votes to be counted on election night, so the count is only up to 42% of enrolled voters. ABC election analyst Antony Green expects the large number^[2] of pre-poll and postal votes to reduce Labor’s lead, but Labor will still win easily. These votes will be counted from Monday.

This is the second time the SA Labor government has gained a seat from the opposition at a byelection. In March, Labor gained Dunstan, the seat of former SA Liberal premier Steven Marshall. This was the first time in a century that a SA government had gained from the opposition at a byelection.

This byelection was held owing to the resignation of former Liberal leader David Speirs, who became leader after the 2022 election. SA Labor has now gained two former Liberal leaders’ seats.

I don’t think this result is due to a backlash against Donald Trump’s election as US president, as the latest federal polls^[3] have been ordinary for Labor.

There’s only been one poll since the 2022 election of SA state voting intentions. That poll, taken in August^[4], gave Labor a 60–40 lead. A very popular Labor government is the most likely explanation for this byelection result.

Australian economic data

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said wages grew 0.8% in the September quarter^[5], the same as in the June quarter, but 12-month wage growth dropped to 3.5% from 4.1%. With headline inflation^[6] up 0.2% in the September quarter and up 2.8% in the previous 12 months, real (inflation-adjusted) wages were up 0.6% in the September quarter and up 0.7% in the previous 12 months.

Real wages have increased^[7] in the last four quarters, but they fell for the two years until September 2023, with the fall peaking in December 2022 at above a 4% real wage drop.

The ABS said the October unemployment rate^[8] was unchanged from September at 4.1%, with 15,900 jobs added. The employment population ratio (the percentage of eligible Austalians who are employed) remained at 64.4%, an equal record high.

Federal Morgan poll: Coalition retains narrow lead

A national Morgan poll^[9], conducted November 4–10 from a sample of 1,665, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the October 28 to November 3 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (down 0.5), 30.5% Labor (steady), 12.5% Greens (down 1.5), 6.5% One Nation (up 0.5), 8.5% independents (up one) and 4.5% others (up 0.5).

The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election flows, Labor led by an unchanged 51–49.

Additional Resolve questions

Support for the Greens was down one to 11% in the November national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, their lowest since February. Newspoll and Morgan have also shown a drop for the Greens.

Greens leader Adam Bandt’s net likeability^[10] was -15 in Resolve, equal with October as his lowest net likeability since February. The Greens’ net likeability was -19, their worst since August.

Other politicians and parties’ net likeability was -40 for Lidia Thorpe, -23 for Pauline Hanson, -15 for Bob Katter, -10 for Albanese, -4 for Labor, -1 for Dutton and +7 for the Liberals.

On flight upgrades^[11], 36% said MPs should get upgrades for work but not personal flights,, 25% wanted no upgrades and 23% wanted them always allowed. By 45–39, voters thought MPs should continue to accept airline lounge memberships as long as they declare it.

On Albanese’s acceptance of benefits, 35% said he should not have accepted them for personal flights, but it was OK for official travel, 30% said it was OK to accept them and 24% said he should not have accepted benefits for either work or personal flights.

WA state and federal polls

The Western Australian state election will be held in March 2025. The Poll Bludger reported^[12] on November 13 that a DemosAU poll, conducted October 30 to November 4 from a sample of 948, gave Labor a 56–44 lead.

Primary votes were 41% Labor, 34% Liberals, 4% Nationals, 12% Greens and 9% for all Others. Labor incumbent Roger Cook had a 42–29 lead over the Liberals’ Libby Mettam as preferred premier.

The federal version of this poll gave Labor a 52–48 lead in WA, a 3% swing to the Coalition from the 2022 federal election. Primary votes were 38% Coalition, 34% Labor, 14% Greens, 6% One Nation and 8% for all Others. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 40–33. A federal WA Redbridge poll gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead.

Victorian Resolve poll: Pesutto now preferred premier

A Victorian state Resolve poll^[13] for The Age, conducted with the federal October and November Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up one since September), Labor 28% (up one), the Greens 13% (down one), independents 14% (down one) and others 7% (steady).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party figure, but The Poll Bludger estimated^[14] a Coalition lead by 50.5–49.5. Liberal leader John Pesutto led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan as preferred premier by 30–29, a reversal of a 30–29 lead for Allan in September. It’s the first time Pesutto has led on this measure.

By 42–37, voters supported the building^[15] of more high-density housing near train and tram stations in their area.

US election late counting

I continue to follow United States election late counting for The Poll Bludger^[16]. Republicans have a 52–47 lead over Democrats in called Senate races^[17], and are likely to win the final uncalled contest in Pennsylvania.

In the House of Representatives^[18], Republicans have a 218–212 lead in called races with five uncalled. I expect Republicans to win two of the uncalled races, Democrats two and one is still undecided.

References

1. ^{^} state seat of Black (www.abc.net.au)
2. ^{^} Antony Green expects the large number (www.abc.net.au)
3. ^{^} latest federal polls (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} That poll, taken in August (theconversation.com)
5. ^{^} the September quarter (www.abs.gov.au)
6. ^{^} headline inflation (www.abs.gov.au)
7. ^{^} wages have increased (www.theguardian.com)
8. ^{^} October unemployment rate (www.abs.gov.au)
9. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
10. ^{^} net likeability (www.theage.com.au)
11. ^{^} flight upgrades (www.theage.com.au)
12. ^{^} Poll Bludger reported (www.pollbludger.net)
13. ^{^} Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
14. ^{^} The Poll Bludger estimated (www.pollbludger.net)
15. ^{^} supported the building (www.theage.com.au)
16. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
17. ^{^} called Senate races (edition.cnn.com)
18. ^{^} House of Representatives (www.nytimes.com)