Why did so many Latino and Hispanic voters help return Donald Trump to power?
- Written by Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of Wollongong
Voters from Latino (immigrants from Latin America and their descendants) and Hispanic (people whose heritage is from Spanish-speaking countries) backgrounds contributed significantly[1] to Donald Trump’s resounding victory over Kamala Harris in the US presidential election.
Overall, Trump increased his share[2] of the Latino vote to 45% nationwide, up substantially from 32% in his 2020 loss to Joe Biden.
About 53%[3] of the voters in this group supported Harris, down from the estimated 60%[4] who voted for Biden in 2020. The shift is an outstanding political feat for the Republican candidate, especially considering Trump’s uneasy and frequently antagonistic relationship with Latino and Hispanic communities.
So why did so many Latino and Hispanic voters back Trump?
Nightmares and dreams
It might seem illogical that Trump strengthened his backing among Latino and Hispanic voters, given his anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies[5], his threat to enact mass deportations of illegal immigrants, and his frequently blatant racist remarks[6].
Politics, however, is not a realm of pure reason. Emotion and narrative[7] play a role, too.
Trump’s surge among Latino and Hispanic voters can be traced back to nightmares and dreams never far from voters’ minds.
Many of these voters left the nightmare of poverty behind in their countries of origin. Their dreams are rooted in traditional (mainly masculine) stories about prosperity in the “land of the free”.
‘Love’, insults and slander
Trump has boasted about how much he “loves” Latinos and Hispanics. His actions, however, mostly disprove his words.
When Trump launched his first presidential campaign[9] in 2015, he called Mexicans “rapists” who were “bringing drugs” and “crime” into the US.
He claimed this problem was “coming from all over South and Latin America”.
He also promised to build[10] “a great, great wall” on the US southern border, for which Mexico was meant to pay, to stop undocumented immigrants.
In the third and last 2016 presidential debate, he labelled Latino and Hispanic men, without any nuance or evidence, as “bad hombres[11]” who constantly smuggle drugs into the US.
During his first term in office, the Trump administration then implemented policies that specifically hurt Latino and Hispanic communities.
These included a “zero tolerance[12]” illegal immigration approach, which separated parents from their children.
In November 2023, he argued this served as an effective deterrent[13], foreshadowing that this policy may return if he was re-elected.
In his 2024 campaign, Trump claimed[14] immigrants were “poisoning the blood” of the US.
He again vowed to crack down on immigration, promising mass deportations[15] of some 11 million undocumented people.
At a Trump rally a week ago, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe then likened Puerto Rico[16] to a “floating island of garbage.” Trump told ABC News[17] he had not heard the remark and stopped short of denouncing it.
The rainbow of Latino and Hispanic pluralism
Why would Latino and Hispanic voters support a candidate who so candidly has shown his contempt for them?
A recent Siena poll for the New York Times[18] provides some clues.
Over 40% among these Latino and Hispanic voters supported both Trump’s pledge to continue building a wall along the Mexico border and his deportation plans.
About 63% said they do not “feel like he is talking about me” when Trump discusses immigration.
Latino and Hispanic voters are frequently clustered as a distinct ethnic and cultural group in US political surveys[20].
They are contrasted, for example, against “white”, “Black” or “Asian” voters.
Latinos and Hispanics, however, are diverse[21] in national origin, class, ethnic and gender characteristics. They are not a monolith, but rather a rainbow.
There were 62.5 million[22] Latinos and Hispanics living in the US in 2021, about 19% of the total population.
An estimated 36.2 million were eligible to vote[23] this year, representing 15% of potential voters.
Latinos and Hispanics also make up a large share of voters in swing states[24] such as Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
Their wide variety of backgrounds, however, underscores why grouping them as a uniform bloc is flawed.
In 2021, the five largest populations[25] in the US by national origin were:
- Mexicans (37.2 million)
- Puerto Ricans (5.8 million)
- Salvadorans (2.5 million)
- Dominicans (2.4 million)
- Cubans (2.4 million).
The experience of immigration and life in the US is different for each of these groups. Their response to the political campaigns would also be different.
The myth of ‘Comrade Kamala’
It’s too early to say for sure what drove voter patterns in each community. But we can venture a few hypotheses.
Trump, for example, falsely portrayed Harris as a committed communist, such as in this post on X (which garnered over 81 million views):
For Latino immigrants coming from countries under authoritarian regimes, such as Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, this messaging recalls memories of the situation they fled.
“I will deliver the best future for Puerto Ricans and Hispanic Americans. Kamala will deliver you poverty and crime,” Trump told his supporters at a recent rally[26].
Playing on the fears of a “communist” system under Harris was likely a successful strategy. The leftist regimes in many Latinos’ countries of origin are seen as a threat to their economic security.
Kamala, ‘evil woman’
Gender also played a major role in Trump’s victory. Trump appealed to young men[27], who fear women’s gains in equality. Latino and Hispanic men were no exception[28].
A viral campaign video showed Trump dancing to the famous salsa theme “Juliana”. The lyrics were modified though, simply describing Harris as “mala” (evil).
A September NBC poll[29] showed a vast gender gap between Trump and Harris voters. While women backed the Democrats 58% to 37%, men supported Republicans 52% to 40%.
This played out specifically among Latinos in the election, too. According to exit polls[30] by the Associated Press, 47% of Latino men supported Trump in the election, compared to 38% of Latino women.
Trump tapped into ideals of masculinity and hierarchy that, while not exclusive to Latino and Hispanic men, uphold the promise of a return to traditional gender models.
Many men are angry about losing their former privileges. They expressed their nostalgia for stereotypical male traits[31] (and corresponding female submission) in the polls.
References
- ^ contributed significantly (www.axios.com)
- ^ increased his share (www.miamiherald.com)
- ^ 53% (www.nbcnews.com)
- ^ estimated 60% (www.pewresearch.org)
- ^ anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies (heinonline.org)
- ^ racist remarks (direct.mit.edu)
- ^ Emotion and narrative (books.google.com.au)
- ^ AP Photo/Lynne Sladky (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ first presidential campaign (time.com)
- ^ promised to build (theconversation.com)
- ^ bad hombres (www.youtube.com)
- ^ zero tolerance (www.justice.gov)
- ^ effective deterrent (thehill.com)
- ^ claimed (www.nbcnews.com)
- ^ mass deportations (www.pbs.org)
- ^ likened Puerto Rico (www.bbc.com)
- ^ ABC News (abcnews.go.com)
- ^ Siena poll for the New York Times (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ EPA/ALLISON DINNER (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ US political surveys (www.reuters.com)
- ^ diverse (books.google.com.au)
- ^ 62.5 million (www.pewresearch.org)
- ^ 36.2 million were eligible to vote (www.pewresearch.org)
- ^ swing states (www.sbs.com.au)
- ^ the five largest populations (www.pewresearch.org)
- ^ at a recent rally (www.aljazeera.com)
- ^ appealed to young men (theconversation.com)
- ^ were no exception (edition.cnn.com)
- ^ September NBC poll (www.nbcnews.com)
- ^ According to exit polls (apnews.com)
- ^ stereotypical male traits (www.nytimes.com)
Authors: Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of Wollongong
