Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll.

Peter Dutton’s net approval was down three points to -13, and this is the first time Albanese and Dutton have been equal on net approval in Newspoll since November 2023. Albanese led Dutton by 45–37 as better PM (46–39 previously).

When asked about inflation if Dutton and the Coalition were in government, 24% said inflation would be lower than it is now, 18% higher, 41% about the same and 17% were undecided.

While the government has had other problems in the past few weeks, I believe inflation is still its main problem with voters. Last week’s Morgan consumer confidence^[2] reading of 82.6 was the highest six-week average since February, but consumer confidence has been below 85 for a record 82 successive weeks.

YouGov poll tied at 50–50

A national YouGov poll^[3], conducted August 23–28 from a sample of 1,543, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the mid-July YouGov poll^[4]. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one), 32% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one) and 10% for all Others (down one).

It’s strange that the two-party vote improved for the Coalition despite the drop in the Coalition’s primary vote and gain for Labor. Rounding probably explains this.

Albanese’s net approval was down one point to -11, with 52% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval was also down one to -5. Albanese led Dutton by 43–38 as preferred PM (45–37 in July).

In a forced choice question, 67% of Australian voters would vote for Democrat Kamala Harris for US president, while 33% would vote for Republican Donald Trump. The only group voting for Trump was One Nation voters (80–20 for Trump).

Essential poll: Labor gains to lead by 48–46

A national Essential poll^[5], conducted August 21–25 from a sample of 1,129, gave Labor a 48–46 lead including undecided, after a 47–47 tie in the early August Essential poll. Primary votes were 33% Coalition (down one), 29% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (steady), 11% for all Others (up two) and 6% undecided (steady).

Despite Labor’s improvement on voting intentions, Albanese’s net approval dropped seven points since late July to -10, with 50% disapproving and 40% approving. This is Albanese’s worst rating in Essential this term. Dutton’s net approval was steady at +1.

By 44–30, voters supported Dutton’s call^[6] to pause arrivals of Palestinian refugees. There was a 42–42 tie on whether immigration to Australia is generally positive or negative (46–34 positive in November 2023).

While voters were narrowly positive on immigration’s impact on the economy (42–41), they were negative on its impact on jobs (51–35), the environment (43–24) and strongly negative on house prices (69–15).

On the government’s response to the Israel-Gaza war, 32% said it was too supportive of Israel, 16% too harsh on Israel and 52% were satisfied. These figures are unchanged from June. On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 39% (up one since June) said Israel should permanently withdraw, 21% (steady) agree to a temporary ceasefire and 17% (up two) said Israel’s military action was justified.

Redbridge and Morgan polls

A national Redbridge poll^[7], conducted from a sample of 2,000, gave Labor a 50.5–49.5 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the mid-July Redbridge poll^[8]. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down three) and 33% Labor (up one). No other primary votes or fieldwork dates have been released yet.

A national Morgan poll^[9], conducted August 19–25 from a sample of 1,701, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the August 12–18 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 39.5% Coalition (up one), 29.5% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down 0.5), 4% One Nation (steady), 9% independents (up 0.5) and 5% others (steady).

The headline figure is based on respondent preferences. By 2022 election preferences flows, there was a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

EMRS Tasmanian poll: little change since May

An EMRS Tasmanian state poll^[10], conducted August 14–21 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 36% of the vote (up one since May), Labor 27% (down one), the Greens 14% (down one), the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 8% (up one), independents 14% (steady) and others 3% (steady).

Liberal incumbent Jeremy Rockliff held a 45–30 lead over Labor’s Dean Winter as preferred premier (40–32 in May).

At the March state election^[11], three JLN MPs were elected, but analyst Kevin Bonham reported^[12] on August 25 that two of these MPs had been expelled by the party.

So the current standings of the Tasmanian lower house are 14 Liberals out of 35, ten Labor, five Greens, five independents and one JLN. The Liberals need four of the six crossbenchers to pass legislation opposed by Labor and the Greens. The EMRS poll was done before the JLN blew up.

NT likely election result

For the August 24 Northern Territory election, the ABC is giving^[13] the Country Liberal Party (CLP) 17 of the 25 seats, Labor four, independents three and one seat (Nightcliff^[14]) is undecided, but Labor is expected to beat the Greens after distribution of preferences.

The Greens were initially seen as likely to beat the CLP in Fannie Bay^[15] on Labor preferences, but the flow of Labor preferences to the Greens was weaker than expected, and the CLP will gain Fannie Bay from Labor.

Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

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